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dark horse fantasy football picks
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2021 NFL Draft: This year’s dark horse in a talented running back class.
Keaontay Ingram could be a sleeper in a 2021 NFL Draft running back class that is filled with big names.
The 2021 NFL Draft running back class is filled with a bunch of young and exciting names. Travis Etienne seems to be the top running back in many big boards along with Chuba Hubbard and Trey Sermon. Also, Kenneth Gainwell out of Memphis is getting a lot of hype, while young guy Zamir White is worth paying attention to as well. A guy who isn’t getting as much pop is the Texas Longhorn runner Keaontay Ingram, who could be a steal for an organization in a later round.
Last season, Ingram became a versatile weapon for the Longhorns in both the run and pass game. Ingram rushed for 853 yards and found the endzone 7 times in the 2019-20 College Football season. Ingram was also a weapon for Sam Elligher in the passing game snagging 29 catches for 242 yards and three touchdowns. Ingram has a lot of attributes to be a three-down back in the league and proved it on tape.
Ingram possesses the technique at the running backs position has become common in the league, having great body control and patience at the line of scrimmage. Also having a great ability to stick his foot and change directions to then create a foot race to the endzone against the second and third levels of defense. Also, Ingram going from 190 pounds to 222 pounds this season and standing at 6-feet tall makes his skill set an even more lethal of a weapon in different schemes.
One game that showed why Ingram could be a big asset for an NFL team last year was when the Long Horns face Kansas State in 2019. Ingram was handed the ball 16 times running for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Ingram was used in the read-option scheme, which Texas loves with their mobile quarterback, making great reactions and footwork to gain yards.
In this game, Ingram showed his ability to break down defenders and juke his way into the endzone with great body control and technique against one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12.
Patient back who reminds of an NFL star.
Three words to describe Ingram running technique at the line of scrimmage would be patience, patience, and patience. It was popularized by Le’Veon Bell in his days in Pittsburgh where he waits at the line of scrimmage for blocks to develop and then explode up the field. Then when in open space Ingram shows great footwork and control to maneuver his way upfield.
A part of his game that is underrated is his role in the passing game. Many may go to his wide-open drop in the end zone against LSU early in the season, but he has a great pass-catching arsenal in his game to be a dual-threat running back. Sneaky good route running ability in wheel routes and catching screens in the backfield and then using his running ability to gain yards is a big asset to his game.
He is a guy who probably will not wow us through the 2021 NFL Draft process with a super-fast 40-yard dash or other drills showing athleticism, but he will test at an adequate level.
Currently, Ingram is projected to be a fourth to fifth-round pick, but with a good season this year, you could see him rise in 2021 NFL Draft boards. This past year’s draft you saw a guy like Cam Akers, who was a third to fourth-round guy, get selected in the second round. Don’t be surprised if Ingram is an under the radar guy who goes higher than draft experts say.


SF 49ers: TE Kyle Pitts a dark-horse target in 2021 NFL Draft.
Would the SF 49ers actually consider using their first pick, No. 12 overall, in the 2021 NFL Draft on Florida tight end Kyle Pitts?
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6 Fantasy Football Dark Horses For Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
Quintez Cephus has dynasty dark horse potential in 2021 and beyond.
Just like life, sports will find a way. As sports return slowly and surely we inch closer to a return to the NFL season as well. Dynasty drafts are heating up, rookie camps are non-existent so who are the dynasty dark horses to be targeting? What players currently projected outside the first two rounds possess some deep value?
The value at the top end of the draft seems clear, but championships are built by the obvious move. Championships come riding in with a herd of dark horses who come from nowhere to take the league and title by storm.
1. Quintez Cephus (WR)
The Lions featured a prolific passing offense at the start of last year. Matt Stafford was on a tear to start the year and was on pace to finish the year as QB05. So how does any of this impact the talented Wisconsin wideout? It probably will not this year. Dynasty is not just about finding value for this year. It is about knowing who has a path to stardom in the years to come, and Cephus has a clear path ahead of him.
All three of Detroit’s receivers are scheduled to hit free agency next offseason. Kenny Golladay was WR03 last year and is about to get paid. Marvin Jones was WR27, but he is on the wrong end of 30 and was already making $8 million per year. Danny Amendola may have stayed reasonably healthy in the past few years, but he is a nice slot option at best. The door is open in 2021 and beyond for the former Badger. Cephus is a dynamic receiver who can make plays all over the field. He brought in 24% of the passes in a run-heavy Wisconsin offense and averaged 15.3 YPC. 2020 may not be his year, barring an injury, but 2021 will be a coming-out party as he slides onto the field opposite Golladay. Go get this dynasty dark horse in the third round and reap the rewards in 2021 and beyond.
2. Jalen Hurts (QB)
We all know about the quarterback situation in Philadelphia. Yes, Carson Wentz is firmly entrenched as the starter for this year, but what about next year? What if Wentz gets hurt and misses time like he has each year since he arrived in Philly? Jalen Hurts is a proven commodity as a passer and a running threat. Combine all of that and you have a good candidate for a late-round stash.
Wentz has missed significant regular-season time in two of the last three years and has a 39.8% chance of missing games this year. Anyone who owns Wentz should either have another starting option on the bench or snap up Hurts in a move to handcuff the oft-injured Wentz. If Hurts sees action, he will be productive with a strong ground game and solid receiving options. There is also the chance he develops into a Taysom Hill-esque weapon who gains Flex eligibility as well. Go get Hurts anytime after round three, but if you own Wentz already, we will excuse you for taking him in the second.
3. Tee Higgins (WR)
There are two hype-trains I am claiming the conductor’s hat for in 2020. The first is that Deandre Hopkins will be WR01 this year. Secondly, Tee Higgins will be the best receiver to come out of the 2020 Draft and will be a top-20 wide receiver this year. Higgins is presently ranked as WR06 in the rookie class, behind Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, Jefferson, and Ruggs III. Higgins has a clear path to one of the largest target shares in the NFL for a rookie receiver this year and the skill set to capitalize on it.
Higgs is currently slotted in as the third receiver on the Bengals’ roster. If we look at Coach Taylor’s time with the Rams, we see that they split their targets fairly evenly between their top three receivers with each receiving 100 targets. Looking at the Bengals they appear to be constructed similarly at receiver. AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins look a lot like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks. The Bengals do have John Ross and Auden Tate on the roster for now, but Tate will most likely slide into more of a receiving tight end role and provide solid volume there. Meanwhile, Ross is running on borrowed time in Cincy. The oft-injured speedster has been inconsistent since he came into the league and is not a reliable option on a game-to-game basis. Ross will either be traded or cut by the time the regular season rolls around, leaving Higgins as the best deep-threat. Higgins is going in the first round right now, not truly a dynasty dark horse, he should be a top-five pick in rookie drafts. Go get him early and you will be rewarded in 2020 and beyond.
4. Darrynton Evans (RB)
Dynasty Drafts are about finding value in late rounds who will help your team in the years to come. Running back is a volatile position and you should plan on turning over a majority of your running back position every five years or less. Do not plan on a running back remaining a productive part of your lineup beyond those five years. Every running back who has value beyond five years is just a bonus.
5. Lamical Perine (RB)
If the Perine name sounds familiar, it should be his cousin Samaje Perine is on his third team, Bengals, since coming into the league. Lamical has solid college experience coming out of Florida and really flashed dual-threat capabilities in his senior year by catching 40 passes. Heading to the New Jersey Jets, Perine will be competing with Frank Gore to backup Le’veon Bell.
Last year Bell missed one game and has missed time for injury or suspension in all but one year since he came into the league in 2013. Frank Gore is a steadying veteran presence in the running back room, but his yards-per-carry have been under 4.0 in four of the last five years. Gore may see work early this year, but Perine has younger legs and explosiveness that Gore cannot match. Anyone who already owns Bell should start looking at Perine in the second round. Anyone looking for a potential dark horse starter in 2021 should the Jets take the out on Le’veon Bell’s contract should look at him in the third round.
6. Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
The former Liberty standout steps into a Washington receiving corps that is searching for another receiver to play on the outside opposite breakout rookie Terry McLaurin. Trey Quinn appears to have locked down the slot position, but opposite McLaurin is nothing but a question mark at this point. The Washington passing offense was anemic last year outside of McLaurin, but Washington has the potential to open it up and let Dwayne Haskins throw a bit more than last year, or let former panther Kyle Allen take the reigns. Add in that Washington could be a landing spot for Trevor Lawrence in 2021 and Gandy-Golden has massive upside.


Dark Horse Fantasy Football Leaders for 2020.
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Lamar Jackson shocked the NFL by leading the league in passing touchdowns last season. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews finished tied for second in receiving touchdowns and DeVante Parker surged into the top five for receiving yards. We see this sort of volatility every season with dark horse candidates surging toward the top of the leaderboard. Today, I’ll tell you which players have a potential scenario that would see them making that leap to finish at or near the top of the league in the most important fantasy stats.
Passing Yards – Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) “Wait, what? They drafted Tua!” Right, and he is coming off a major injury and had a limited off-season with his teammates. He most definitely isn’t starting right away and it’s possible that he doesn’t start at all in year one because the Dolphins offensive line isn’t quite ready to protect their prized franchise QB. If Fitzpatrick is the year-long starter, which I’ll admit is less than 50% likely, I’d argue that he is the odds on favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards. After all, the Dolphins will be playing from behind all season again. In fact, from the time Fitz took over as a starter, he was second in the NFL (behind Winston) with 3,094 yards in his 11 games. Add in an improved offensive line and now healthy Preston Williams and that pace should even improve.
Other dark horse candidates.
Joe Burrow – Tremendous weapons, perfect game scripts = heavy volume Daniel Jones – Flashed immense ceiling last year, has great weapons too.
In fact, Tannehill had 1.09 more yards per attempt than any other QB in the final 11 weeks. That is larger the career difference between Tom Brady and Trent Dilfer. It’s twice the difference between Drew Brees and Andy Dalton or Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler. Folks, Tannehill was ridiculous as the starter. And it just isn’t true that Tannehill has always been terrible. Prior to his injuries and the arrival of Adam Gase in 2016, he was #3 all-time behind Peyton Manning and Dan Marino in passing yards during the first four seasons of a career and top 10 all-time in most TDs. His interception rate? Top 10 best and he accomplished all of this with lackluster weapons and a struggling offensive line.
Other dark horse candidates.
Kyler Murray – High-tempo offense, huge volume, improved weapons Baker Mayfield – New coordinator, incredible weapons, broke rookie TD-record in short season.
Rushing Yards – Jonathan Taylor (IND) Outside of Saquon Barkley, I’d put Taylor’s college tape up against any of the elite RB prospects in the last decade. Zeke, Fournette, Derrick Henry? Yep, he’s on par with them all. Frankly, though, this has much more to do with his landing spot. The Colts just so happen to have the best offensive line in all of football. They also have a defense strong enough that they should end up in the type of game scripts that lead to many carries. Not only that, but if we know anything about Frank Reich, he wants to run the heck out of the football. If Indy gives Taylor the keys to the backfield from Week 1, he could explode onto the scene.
Other dark horse candidates.
Raheem Mostert – Don’t forget he went for 146 rush yds on 19 carries vs BAL and 220 on 29 carries vs GB in the playoffs Alexander Mattison – If Dalvin Cook holds out or suffers another injury, Mattison is more than capable of filling the gap as a workhorse.
Rushing Touchdowns – Ronald Jones II (TB) The Bucs backfield is a nightmare to figure out but there is plenty of upside to be found in this dynamic offense from whoever ends up with the job. As we’ve seen with Tom Brady‘s teams before, lackluster runningbacks can end up with elite goal-line usage and pile up the touchdowns. Jones may not be Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara through the air, but he is plenty competent on the ground and if he wins this job outright in the preseason, we could potentially be looking at 12 to 15 scores from this mid-round pick.
Other dark horse candidates.
Receptions – Cooper Kupp (LAR) Through five weeks last season, Kupp had 63 targets which was eight more than even Michael Thomas! From that point on, his snap counts plummetted every other week and he was seeing inconsistent targets. He flashed for 220 yards in Week 8, for instance, but then caught 0 balls the following week. Perhaps the Rams were hiding an injury. While there are many questions about who Kupp and the Rams will be this season, there is one thing that is clear: Kupp has shown the upside to be a league-winning reception hog and few others can make that claim.
Other dark horse candidates.
Adam Thielen – Stefon Diggs is gone and Thielen had 204 rec in 2017-2018 even with Diggs on the team Terry McLaurin – Incredible rookie tape, limited competition for targets, useful game scripts in store.
Other dark horse candidates.
DeVante Parker – Led the NFL in receiving yards over the final 9 weeks D.J. Chark – Game script should create huge passing volume, third-year WR with elite athleticism, was top 10 in yards before injury.
Receiving Touchdowns – Calvin Ridley (ATL) Since joining the league, Ridley has 17 touchdowns on just 185 targets. Check out how that 9.2% compares to other elite wideouts: Michael Thomas (5.4%), Julio Jones (4.3%), DeAndre Hopkins (5.8%), Mike Evans (6.3%), Tyreek Hill (8.4%) and Davante Adams (6.1%). Not only that, but Ridley (9.12) is right there in yards per target with Thomas, Julio and above Hopkins and Adams. To put it plainly, Ridley belongs in that elite tier but a lack of targets has kept people from realizing it. That all changes this year with over 200 targets vacated and now up for grabs. Much like Chris Godwin last year, it isn’t absurd to think Ridley could supplant Julio as the #1 receiver on his team this year.
Other dark horse candidates.
Marquise Brown – Finally healthy, huge aDOT with incredible speed and the reigning MVP A.J. Green – TD-machine throughout his career including 2018 when he was on pace for 12 again when he got hurt.
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Dark Horse Fantasy Football Leaders.
Keelan Cole’s late-season stretch puts him in elite company.
In 2017, Kareem Hunt came out of nowhere to lead the league in rushing yards. The year before, Jordan Howard finished second and the year prior, Doug Martin went from draft-afterthought to number two in rushing. Each and every year this story plays out in several of the key fantasy stats. Today, I’ll tell you which players I can see taking that step forward to finish at the top of the league.
Passing Yards – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Perhaps this wouldn’t surprise everyone, as some have already enshrined him into the Hall of Fame, but the matter of the fact is that he was merely just a low-end QB1 last year over the five weeks Jimmy G started. Now, I am not suggesting this is a lock or anywhere close to it, so I won’t even have shares of Jimmy G considering his current ADP, but it is worth noting that if you extrapolate his five games out to 16, he would have had 4,934 passing yards in 2017. The leader was Tom Brady, “all the way down” at 4,577. Take into account, also, that Jimmy G was just getting to know the offense since he was traded mid-season. While it likely seems unbelievable to everyone sitting here reading this, there is a distinct possibility Garopollo passes for 5,000 yards in his first full season starting.
Passing Touchdowns – Alex Smith (WAS)
The default line of thinking is that Smith is merely a competent passer and at best, a game-manager. While that was once the truth, it couldn’t be further from reality these days. Smith was spectacular last year and frankly should have seen some MVP votes. He was one of only eight passers who went over 4,000 yards and did it despite throwing just 505 passes. His 104.7 QB rate led the league while his 8.00 yards per attempt trailed only Drew Brees. Now imagine if now that he is in Washington, they open up the offense for him and let Smith throw 575 times like all the other top passers in football. Sure, there may be more than five interceptions for once, but he could also surge forth and throw 35 touchdowns which would have led the league in 2017. Remember, after all, that Tom Brady was “merely a game-manager” until Belichek let him air it out.
Rushing Yards – Rashaad Penny (SEA)
You can point to the fact that the Seahawks’ offensive line wasn’t great last year, but it should be substantially better in 2018 with a full season of Duane Brown and the addition of DJ Fluker, who believe it or not, is quite good at run blocking. Despite the offensive line struggles and having no running back surpass 70 carries last season, the unit as a whole wasn’t bad, and that is because the threat of Wilson’s legs opens up lanes for backs. Remember, too, that the last time Seattle had a true workhorse, Christine Michael averaged 70 yards before being surprisingly cut. Michael is talented but nowhere near as much as Penny, who should have a number of breakaway touchdowns just like 2017’s leader, Kareem Hunt. Plus Penny could see far more opportunities than the 95 Michael saw in his 6 starts.
Rushing Touchdowns – Marshawn Lynch (OAK)
It is tempting to believe that Beast Mode’s career is virtually over, but he was actually super impressive last season. He led the league in yards after contact and it wasn’t his fault the Raiders’ offensive line was a trainwreck. This season, they should be much better, and while Lynch may see just 180 to 220 carries, you can bank on the ball being stuck in his gut when Oakland is on the goal-line. There is a reason, after all, that he has four consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons in a row. In 2017, Todd Gurley led the league with 13, and it is feasible that Lynch matches that number if he stays on the field.
You may expect the Redskins’ passing game to take a step back with Kirk Cousins out and Alex Smith in, but as I mentioned previously, Smith is among the best passers in football and no one seems to realize it. The receiving core hasn’t changed much with Terrelle Pryor and Ryan Grant leaving to be replaced by Paul Richardson and perhaps a healthy Jordan Reed. What has changed, however, greatly benefits Crowder. It is that his new QB almost never throws to a receiver unless they have a yard or two of separation. Among the current receiving options in Washington, only Crowder is above average at creating separation, and he just so happens to be among the best in the league.
Other candidates: Pierre Garcon, Juju Smith-Schuster (only if Brown was to get injured)
Receiving Yards – Keelan Cole (JAX)
Before you just skip this one because it seems to absurd, please hear me out. This one is actually really simple. In the final four weeks of the season, Cole had led the NFL in receiving yards. You might say it is a small sample size, and sure, that is true, but then what do you do with the fact that these are the only receivers with a four-game stretch of 442 or more yards?
DeAndre Hopkins (WR #1) Antonio Brown (WR #2) Keenan Allen (WR #3) Tyreek Hill (WR #4) Julio Jones (WR #6) Keelan Cole (rookie!)
With Cole starting the entire season, he has a chance to continue the way he ended last season. Oh, by the way, he is free in your fantasy drafts. He’s got the athleticism, has no top-tier, or even second-tier wideout in his way, and plays for an offense that was second in the AFC in scoring last season.
Receiving Touchdowns – Corey Davis (TEN)
Chances are that if you drafted Davis, you were so discouraged by his utter lack of production that you won’t dare try it again. I get that, for sure, but please consider that he missed training camp and the pre-season where he would have been learning the playbook and getting chemistry with the offensive unit. Then when he came back, Davis wasn’t even fully healthy. We saw flashes in the playoffs of who he can be and it is an absolute monster. The comps to Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall are legitimate. Let’s not forget that between the two of them, they’ve got seven seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Davis figures to be the number one option in the offense this season and could absolutely take off the same way both Dez and Marshall did after rough rookie seasons.
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