nfl football picks for week 16

[FabioIneks]

п»їPete Prisco's Week 16 NFL picks: Rams rebound to upset Seahawks, Steelers and Saints get back on track.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 16, including the Packers pounding the Titans to lock up the top seed.
Don't you just hate ties?
We had three of them with our picks against the spread last week, which meant my weekly record was 7-6-3 against the spread.
Of the three ties, all three should have been wins. The Texans, getting seven, fumbled at the 1 in the closing seconds. The Chiefs gave up a late score to let the Saints close to within three for a push, while the Washington Football Team lost by five, when in reality the number was higher than that because Alex Smith didn't play.
So that 7-6-3 record felt like a 10-6 mark for me, even if it doesn't count that way. My best bets on the Pick Six Podcast went 4-3 to up my season record to 53-36-1, tops on the podcast.
Let's keep it going with a good holiday week of picks.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints.
The Saints have lost two straight games, but Drew Brees looked more like himself in the second half against the Chiefs. That will carry over here against a Vikings defense that doesn't rush the passer. Look for the Saints defense to get back on track as well. The Saints lost to the Vikings at home in the playoffs last year, but that won't be the case in this one. Saints take it.
Pick: Saints 27, Vikings 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions.
The Bucs are playing a second straight road game, but they are the class in this game. The Lions have issues on defense and Tom Brady will take advantage of that. With so much on the line, the Bucs will be focused.
Pick: Bucs 31, Lions 23.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals.
This is a home game for both teams — since both are playing in the same stadium because of COVID-19 issues in Santa Clara. But this is technically a home game for the Cardinals. The 49ers are out of the playoff race, while Arizona badly needs this game. Motivation will be key. Kyler Murray will have a good day against the 49ers secondary to win it.
Pick: Cardinals 30, 49ers 23.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders.
This is a big game in terms of the playoff chase, especially big for Miami. The Raiders will likely be playing Marcus Mariota at quarterback, which is a plus for Miami. Derek Carr has been limited with a groin injury. The Dolphins offense should be able to move the ball against a bad Raiders secondary. Miami will win it.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Raiders 27.
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs.
The Falcons are playing out the string, while the Chiefs are cruising to the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City is back home after two road victories. The Falcons have blown a lot of big leads in games, but that won't be the case here. They won't lead by much — if at all. Look for Patrick Mahomes to light up the Falcons. Blowout.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Falcons 24.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets.
The Browns are in the division race with the Steelers faltering, but they need to be careful here. The Jets played well last week in beating the Rams on the road. Cleveland is back in the same stadium after playing there Monday night against the Giants. They handled the Giants with ease, but this will be a little tougher. The Jets will hang around.
Pick: Browns 25, Jets 20.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers.
These two are both alive in the playoff chase, which makes this a big game. The Steelers are struggling in a big way to move the football, while the Colts defense has lagged some the past few weeks. Something will have to give. I think Ben Roethlisberger will make some plays down the field that have been missing. The Steelers will pull off the upset.
Pick: Steelers 23, Colts 21.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team.
If Washington wins its last two games, it wins the NFC East. Pretty simple. The Panthers are playing consecutive road games after losing to Green Bay last week. The Washington defense will get the best of Teddy Bridgewater in this one. Washington gets the first of two victories it has to have.
Pick: Washington 20, Carolina 14.
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars can get the first pick in the draft with two more losses, but that matters none to the players. The problem is the players aren't very good. The Chicago defense will be all over Gardner Minshew in this game, which will lead to turnovers and short fields. The Bears will do enough to keep their playoff hopes alive with a victory.
Pick: Bears 27, Jaguars 13.
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens.
This is essentially a playoff game for these two. They both have to have it. The Giants are playing off a Sunday night loss and now are out on the road, which can be tough. The Ravens seem to be getting back into form. Look for a low-scoring game with the Ravens pulling away late.
Pick: Ravens 24, Giants 10.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans.
These two are playing out the string, which is an advantage to the home team. The Texans are home for the first time in three weeks, while the Bengals are playing on a short week. Cincinnati put a lot into beating the Steelers Monday night, so this will be a letdown. Texans big.
Pick: Texans 34, Bengals 21.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers lost to the Broncos 31-30 earlier this season, so this is a chance for revenge. Justin Herbert is playing great football right now and Denver's beat-up secondary was torched by Josh Allen last week. That continues as we see a high-scoring game with the Chargers winning it.
Pick: Chargers 35, Broncos 28.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams are coming off a loss to the Jets and now must win this game to have a chance to win the division. Seattle has been improved on defense, but I expect the Rams to come in here and play well. Sean McVay will get them back on track and they will limit Russell Wilson. Rams take it.
Pick: Rams 26, Seahawks 20.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles are on the road for a second straight week with Jalen Hurts as their starter at quarterback. The Cowboys are suddenly playing well on offense. This should be a high-scoring game with the Cowboys winning it with a late touchdown. Dallas tries to stay alive in the playoff chase.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Eagles 26.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers.
This will be the running game of the Titans against the passing game of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was just OK last week, but I think he will bounce back with a big game against a bad Titans defense. Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans, but they won't keep up. The Packers will lock up the top seed.
Pick: Packers 37, Titans 27.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots.
The Bills have clinched the AFC East, while the Patriots are playing out the string. It's weird to even write that. Buffalo can still get the No. 2 seed, so it will be focused here. Look for another big game from Josh Allen. Bills keep rolling.
Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 17.


NFL Week 16 game picks: Packers top Titans; Steelers fall to Colts.
Around The NFL Editor.
Copied!
Gregg Rosenthal went 11-5 on his predictions for Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 141-81-1. How will he fare in Week 16? His picks are below.
Sunday, Dec. 27.
Related Links.
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Cleveland Browns 30, New York Jets 17.
Can a 1-13 team have a letdown game? With the Jets having little else to play for besides the antipathy of their fans, the Browns should have few problems moving the ball. Sam Darnold theoretically also has a plus matchup, but he remains a quarterback in Year 3 who doesn't do much well, even when he's well protected.
Baltimore Ravens 30, New York Giants 20.
I'm not ready to fully yell "THE RAVENS ARE BACK!" because their defense has burgeoning issues and they are still missing their best blockers, but New York doesn't look like the team to expose those flaws. For all the deserved love the Giants' defense has received this season, they have fallen victim to two creative, diverse running games in the last two weeks. The Ravens will make it three straight.
Houston Texans 28, Cincinnati Bengals 23.
It's hard to overstate how well Deshaun Watson has played this season and how poor virtually every other component of the Texans operation remains. That's why I can't quite trust Houston winning easily on Sunday.
Chicago Bears 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 17.
Jaguars coach Doug Marrone says that п»їGardner Minshewп»ї and п»їMike Glennonп»ї are suddenly competing for snaps in practice again, which is either obfuscation or deserves condemnation. Much of п»їMitchell Trubiskyп»ї and п»їDavid Montgomeryп»ї's recent surge can be tied to the incredibly soft stretch of defenses they've faced, a stretch that continues in Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs 34, Atlanta Falcons 20.
The Chiefs haven't posted a two-score win since they stomped the Jets in Week 8. The Falcons have been competitive in every Raheem Morris-coached game this season. These streaks are long overdue to end.
Indianapolis Colts 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 21.
Two of the best defenses in football vs. short passes against these two veteran quarterbacks could result in a lot of short drives. The Colts have a superior running game, superior play-caller and better matchups when DeForest Buckner and friends face the struggling Steelers offensive line.
Carolina Panthers 23, Washington Football Team 21.
I may regret picking a Panthers team that finds ways to lose games over a Washington team that has punched above its weight all season, but early-week practice reports indicate Dwayne Haskins will remain the quarterback over still-limited Alex Smith, with Antonio Gibsonп»ї's status up in the air. It wouldn't feel right if this dreadful NFC East were decided before Week 17.
Los Angeles Chargers 34, Denver Broncos 31.
п»їDrew Lockп»ї does too much. п»їJustin Herbertп»ї is not allowed to do enough in the Chargers' run-run-pass offense. This is weirdly the toughest game to pick all week, but it doesn't seem right for these Broncos, -18 in turnover differential, to sweep any team this season.
Los Angeles Rams 20, Seattle Seahawks 17.
Sean McVay is 5-2 against Pete Carroll. The Rams' offense usually knows how to attack Carroll's defense, while Russell Wilson had one of his worst days all year against Brandon Staley's attack in Week 10. In a Rams season where they rarely look like the same team two weeks in a row, this matchup sets up well for a bounce-back game and control of the NFC West.
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Dallas Cowboys 24.
Green Bay Packers 33, Tennessee Titans 31.
The Packers are 1-2 against teams currently with winning records, which is a weirdly small sample size. The Titans are 3-3 in such games and often part of the biggest NFL game of the week. In a matchup that is likely to include a ton of points and MVP moments for п»їAaron Rodgersп»ї, I like the Packers' pass rushers and physical cornerbacks to make a few more plays than the inert Titans defense.
Monday, Dec. 28.
Buffalo Bills 33, New England Patriots 20.
The Bills still have plenty to play for with the No. 2 seed in the AFC available, not to mention another benchmark, prime-time game for Josh Allenп»ї. Bill Belichick has been Allen's kryptonite throughout his career, with the Patriots holding Allen to 154 yards with a pick and a fumble back in Week 8. (Allen has three TDs, six INTs and just over a 50% completion rate against the Patriots in his career.) The Bills are a much different team and Allen is a much different quarterback these days, with Monday night likely to provide the latest proof.
ALREADY COMPLETED.
Miami Dolphins 27, Las Vegas Raiders 17.
Maybe it will be the Dolphins' special teams unit making a big play. Maybe it will be the Dolphins' expanding run game exposing a blown assignment by the Raiders. Maybe it will be п»їDerek Carrп»ї or п»їMarcus Mariotaп»ї making a killer mistake. Somehow, some way, these Dolphins always find a way to win against mediocre teams in ways that seem unrepeatable if they didn't repeat them every week.
Arizona Cardinals 26, San Francisco 49ers 19.
The Cardinals are arguably coming off their most impressive two-game stretch of the season. Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert is back out of the 49ers' lineup. Nick Mullens might need Tommy John surgery, with C.J. Beathard returning at quarterback. George Kittle oddly appears likely to return, but Richard Sherman is hurt again. This entire 49ers season has been an injury report, and this is a matchup they struggled with back in Week 1, when they were somewhat healthy. Scratch that: Their injury report was a mess back then, too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Detroit Lions 23.
The Lions' defense isn't just bad; it's been decimated by injuries. The Bucs' offense isn't just streaky; it's "score 31 points with п»їTom Bradyп»ї throwing for 320 yards in a half after being shut out for 30 minutes" streaky. An avalanche of Bucs points will arrive sometime Saturday afternoon, whether it's early or late.
New Orleans Saints 27, Minnesota Vikings 21.
We are likely hitting the last few games of п»їDrew Breesп»ї career, a reality that has everyone around this Saints team tense coming off a two-game losing streak. Last week's version of Brees wasn't better than п»їTaysom Hillп»ї, but the rust may come off against a pass rush-poor Vikings team. More importantly for this Christmas Day revenge game, п»їKirk Cousinsп»ї' roller-coaster season looks primed to crash against a strong Saints front.


NFL Week 16 picks: Rams beat Seahawks, Colts lock of week vs. slumping Steelers; Giants, Jets don't cover big spreads.
Mandatory Credit: Photo by Peter Joneleit/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock (11652415ar) The Rams enter the field for the game before an National Football League (NFL) game against the New York Jets at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, USA, 20 December 2020. Jets vs Rams NFL, Inglewood, USA - 20 Dec 2020 Credit: Peter Joneleit/EPA-EFE/Shutterst/Peter Joneleit/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.
There were times it felt as if 2020 would never end, but as we approach the new year, one thing that always goes by fast is the NFL season. Weren’t we just talking about whether there would even be a season? Now it’s the penultimate week, with playoff races heating up. With some teams already thinking about their vacation plans, this is a good week to lock in on teams motivated and those out of it.
Favorites went 6-9-1 ATS last week and are 99-113-7 for the season. Home teams went 7-9 straight up and 7-8-1 ATS, bringing their totals to 109-114-1 and 104-113-7.
My three most confident picks are Indianapolis, Washington and Miami (I also like Arizona and Tampa Bay on Saturday, with all three favorites having favorable matchups). Stay away from Cincinnati-Houston.
SATURDAY'S GAMES.
TAMPA BAY (9-5) AT DETROIT (5-9)
Tampa Bay by 9.5; O/U: 54.
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Detroit has given up 40 or more points four times, and this feels as if it could be a fifth. Tom Brady and the Bucs have the playoffs in their sights and will come out firing after last week's slow start in Atlanta.
The pick: Tampa Bay.
SAN FRANCISCO (5-9) AT ARIZONA (8-6)
TV: Prime Video, 4:30 p.m.
Arizona by 5; O/U: 48.5.
Is this San Francisco at Arizona or Arizona at San Francisco? It's now both teams' home stadium. What a confusing season. The Cardinals beat the 49ers in Week 1 when they were able to play in California. With Arizona fighting for a playoff spot and the defending NFC champs out of it, expect Kyler Murray to lead a clean sweep. San Francisco, favored last week at Dallas (41-33 loss), is still getting too much respect. This spread should be a couple of points higher.
The pick: Arizona.
MIAMI (9-5) AT LAS VEGAS (7-7)
Miami by 3; O/U: 47.5.
Jon Gruden must have loved the Dolphins' grind-it-out win over the Patriots last week. Now he will see it up close and personal as Miami wears out a bad Raiders defense. The Dolphins are fighting for a wild-card spot and the Raiders look like a team down for the count. Don’t forget: Las Vegas would be on a five-game losing streak if not for that last-second win over the Jets.
The pick: Miami.
SUNDAY'S 1 p.m. Games.
GIANTS (5-9) AT BALTIMORE (9-5)
Baltimore by 10.5; O/U: 44.
It feels as if the Giants' win at Seattle was eons ago, doesn't it? Three weeks after that stunner moved them to first place, they're on the outside looking in and it's hard to envision them hanging with the resurgent Ravens (87 points the last two weeks). The Giants' defense can keep this respectable, but you can't back a team whose offense has scored seven and six points in its last two games. It will probably need 20 to cover this number.
The pick: Baltimore.
CLEVELAND (10-4) AT JETS (1-13)
Cleveland by 9.5; O/U: 47.
Gotta admit, writing a '1' and not a '0' in the Jets' record felt strange. Their unbelievable win prevented the "next 0-16 team vs. the last 0-16 team" story line. The Browns are a pushover no more and should register their second straight double-digit win at MetLife Stadium. Jets players treated last week's win as if they won the Super Bowl. They got their win. They're happy. Expect them to be flat.
The pick: Cleveland.
LOCK OF THE WEEK.
INDIANAPOLIS (10-4) AT PITTSBURGH (11-3)
Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 44.5.
We went from talking about whether Pittsburgh would lose a single game to now discussing if it will win one the rest of the season. After the Colts, it’s the Browns and then likely a wild-card matchup with a team as good or better. From 11-0 to 11-3 after a shocking loss to Cincinnati on MNF, don’t talk yourself into taking Pittsburgh just because you think it must be better than the last three weeks. The Steelers have major issues, and the eye test tells you to fade them. The Colts are a well-balanced team on both sides of the ball and simply put, the better team. They’ll win, take over the AFC South lead and put pressure on Tennessee to win Sunday night.
The pick: Indianapolis.
ATLANTA (4-10) AT KANSAS CITY (13-1)
Kansas City by 10.5; O/U: 53.5.
The Falcons were reminded of their infamous 28-3 blown lead in the Super Bowl when Tom Brady rallied past them again last week. Now they face a team that earlier this year won the Super Bowl after trailing 20-10 late. Patrick Mahomes and the champs continue their run of good fortune as they clinch the AFC’s 1 seed.
The pick: Kansas City.
CHICAGO (7-7) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-13)
Chicago by 7.5; O/U: 47.
This went from a meaningless game to a very meaningful one. Right, Jets fans? Yes, Chicago has a shot at a wild card after two straight wins, but the No. 1 story here is Jacksonville and the top draft pick after it leapfrogged the Jets. The look-ahead line for this game was Chicago minus-3.5. Now it’s more than a touchdown. That is a red flag. If you don't think the Jags could win, you probably said the same thing about the Jets (like me). Take all those extra points as the Jags tease Jets fans before losing a close one.
The pick: Jacksonville.
CINCINNATI (3-10-1) AT HOUSTON (4-10)
Houston by 7.5; O/U: 46.
This is a contender for "least interested" game of the year. Why is a four-win team laying this many points with no home-field advantage?
The pick: Cincinnati.
4 p.m. GAMES.
GAME OF THE WEEK.
L.A. RAMS (9-5) AT SEATTLE (10-4)
Seattle by 1.5; O/U: 47.5.
The Rams just lost to the 0-13 Jets, so there’s no way you should take them against 10-win Seattle, right? Wrong. That’s exactly why you should back the Rams. If their motivation level was at an all-time low last week, expect it to be at an all-time high after they were embarrassed at home. They’re also playing for the NFC West title, as a win would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle. Since Sean McVay took over, the Rams are 5-2 vs. the Seahawks, including a 23-16 win in Week 10. McVay, Jared Goff and Aaron Donald lead the Rams to a victory, a reminder to the rest of the NFC that last week was a fluke.
The pick: Los Angeles.
CAROLINA (4-10) AT WASHINGTON (6-8)
Washington by 1; O/U: 42.
If Ron Rivera’s new team beats Ron Rivera’s old team, it all but wraps up the NFC East title (assuming the Giants don’t shock Baltimore). Dwayne Haskins’ on-field, off-field issues give me pause, but Washington’s defense will make it a long day for Teddy Bridgewater as the team gets back to its winning ways (four-game streak before last week’s loss to Seattle).
The pick: Washington.
PHILADELPHIA (4-9-1) AT DALLAS (5-9)
Philadelphia by 2.5; O/U: 49.
These teams have a combined nine wins, a number that would’ve run away with the underachieving NFC East. With the playoffs a long shot, will either team show up for this rivalry game? It’s Jalen Hurts’ first taste, so maybe that could be the difference.
The pick: Philadelphia.
DENVER (5-9) AT L.A. CHARGERS (5-9)
Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 49.
If there's one stat to best describe the wild 2020 season, it's this: All four of the Chargers' division games have come down to the final play. That includes a 31-30 loss at Denver in Week 8 after the Broncos scored a TD with 0:00 showing. The Chargers have a little mojo after back-to-back last-second wins and maybe, just maybe, they can wrap this up on the second-to-last-play of the game.
The pick: Los Angeles.
SUNDAY NIGHT.
TENNESSEE (10-4) AT GREEN BAY (11-3)
Green Bay by 3.5; O/U: 55.5.
Tennessee won't be able to contain Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay will struggle to corral Derrick Henry. In a matchup of last year's conference championship runners-up, take the points in what should be a fun one.
The pick: Tennessee.
MONDAY NIGHT.
BUFFALO (11-3) AT NEW ENGLAND (6-8)
Buffalo by 7; O/U: 46.
Buffalo looks as if it's the only team that could stand in Kansas City's way in the AFC. After a dominant win last Saturday in Denver, a well-balanced and well-rested Bills team should roll here. The Pats are out of it. Finishing 8-8 won't mean anything to a perennial playoff team.
The pick: Buffalo.
STAFF STANDINGS AND PICKS.
(best bets in bold)
JOE MANNIELLO.
108-109-7 overall, 10-5 best bets.
Tampa Bay Arizona Miami Baltimore Cleveland.
Indianapolis Kansas City Jacksonville Cincinnati L.A. Rams.
Washington Philadelphia L.A. Chargers Tennessee Buffalo.
BOB GLAUBER.
Tampa Bay Arizona Miami Baltimore Jets.
Pittsburgh Kansas City Chicago Houston Seattle.
Washington Dallas L.A. Chargers Tennessee Buffalo.
TOM ROCK.
Tampa Bay Arizona Miami Giants Cleveland.
Indianapolis Kansas City Jacksonville Cincinnati Seattle.
Washington Dallas L.A. Chargers Green Bay Buffalo.
AL IANNAZZONE.
Tampa Bay Arizona Miami Giants Cleveland.
Pittsburgh Kansas City Chicago Houston Seattle.


NFL Week 16 Game Picks.
Picking the winners of this week’s NFL games.
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Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
The Bleeding Green Nation writers picks are in for Week 16 of 2020 NFL season!
Every week we’ll predict the winners of every game on the schedule. We’ll tally the results along the way and see who comes out on top at the end of the season. Feel free to post your own predictions or discuss the writer predictions in the comments. You, the gentle reader, can also join in on the fun by voting for who you think will win the games (scroll down for polls). I’ll tally those results in a “BGN Community” column.
The BGN community is still in first place after Week 15. John Stolnis, last year’s champ, is still in second place.
When it comes to this week’s Philadelphia Eagles game, the Birds are unanimously favored against the Dallas Cowboys. The writers are split on the Washington Football Team versus Carolina Panthers matchup that can potentially keep Philly’s playoff hopes alive.


NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 16, 2020: Proven model loving Texans, Chargers.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 16 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
After winning Super Bowl 54 and signing Patrick Mahomes to a massive contract extension during the offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs have met expectations in 2020 by winning 13 of their first 14 games. Now, they'll have a chance to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the AFC playoff bracket with a win or a Steelers loss or tie. The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 over the Falcons in the latest Week 16 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are two-point favorites against the Colts in the Week 16 NFL spreads. Where can you find value as you make your NFL bets, and which teams will fall flat? All of the Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up nearly $7,900 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning over $800. The model enters Week 16 on an incredible 118-76 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 16 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 16.
One of the top Week 16 NFL picks the model recommends: The Texans cover as seven-point favorites at home against the Bengals. Both teams have had difficult seasons, with Houston entering Week 16 at 4-10 overall and the Bengals at 3-10-1. However, this line would likely be close to double-digits if Cincinnati had not shocked Pittsburgh in Week 15.
Despite the thrilling win, Cincinnati is still in a precarious situation at quarterback and will have a difficult time keeping pace with a Houston offense that ranks third in passing yardage. Deshaun Watson has had a stellar year with 4,134 yards and 27 touchdowns against just six interceptions while rushing for another 394 yards and three more scores.
Watson has thrown for at least 300 yards in eight of his last 11 starts, while Cincinnati ranks 25th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (6.8). That's why the model predicts that Watson produces nearly 350 yards of total offense overall and scores multiple touchdowns. Meanwhile, Houston's defense records three sacks and forces a pair of turnovers in the model's simulations, helping the Texans cover well over 50 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 16 NFL predictions from the model: The Los Angeles Chargers (-3) cover at home against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers have won each of their last two games, while Denver limps into Sunday's AFC West rivalry having lost five of its last seven.
Los Angeles is averaging 384.4 yards per game this season, which ranks seventh in the NFL. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been sensational in his rookie season and enters Sunday's showdown with 27 touchdown passes, which is tied with Baker Mayfield for the most passing touchdowns by a rookie in NFL history. Herbert also had a ton of success against the Broncos earlier this season, throwing for 278 yards and three touchdowns.
The line opened at Los Angeles -2.5, but has moved up half-a-point. The model is calling for Herbert to throw for over 270 yards and two scores, while running back Austin Ekeler racks up over 90 yards from scrimmage. Los Angeles covers the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the over (48) has all the value.
How to make Week 16 NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 16 NFL schedule and identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks.




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