week 5 expert nfl football picks

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п»їNFL football pool, pick'em, office pool, confidence picks for Week 5, 2020: Back the 49ers.
SportsLine's advanced computer model locked in the top NFL office pool picks for Week 5.
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a perfect 4-0 start, and those that have been riding the defending Super Bowl champions near the top of their NFL confidence pool picks have excelled. With Cam Newton out in Week 4, the Chiefs cruised to a 26-10 victory over the Patriots and have now beaten three playoff teams from last season by double-digits. In Week 5, the Chiefs will take on the Raiders in a crucial AFC West matchup in which they could open up a three-game lead in the division with a lead.
Kansas City is an 11.5-point favorite in the latest Week 5 NFL odds from William Hill. After two dominant wins over the Raiders a year ago, the Chiefs could be among the most popular NFL office pool picks this weekend. But what other teams should you back with confidence with your Week 5 NFL picks, and which NFL underdogs should you target? Before you make your NFL picks, you need to see the Week 5 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven model.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. It's off to a hot 44-18 start to the 2020 season, and anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 5, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Go to SportsLine to see them.
Top Week 5 NFL office pool predictions.
One of the top Week 5 NFL pick'em predictions from the model: San Francisco gets a comfortable win at home against Miami. No team in the NFL has been as decimated by injuries like the defending NFC champions, but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and running back Raheem Mostert (knee) will likely return to the lineup.
With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle making their returns in a Week 4 loss to the Eagles, the 49ers have much more firepower. That's good news against a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed and has given up 1,000 yards through the air the last three weeks.
The model predicts that Garoppolo completes over 70 percent of his passes and that San Francisco's rushing attack produces close to 150 yards on the ground. That's why the model predicts that the 49ers win outright in over 70 percent of simulations with an average final score of 30-20.
How to make Week 5 NFL office pool picks.
The model also made the call on every other Week 5 game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Colts vs. Browns and Falcons vs. Panthers. It's also calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.


Expert Week 5 NFL Picks: Tips, Advice for Confidence, Pick 'em pools.
Last week likely saw major upheaval in confidence and pick 'em pools, as underdogs won more games than favorites. That just means you need to bear down when making your Week 5 NFL picks. Fortunately, the experts at TeamRankings are here to help by identifying five games, including Packers-Cowboys, that should be on your radar.
Armed with the information below, you can make calculated bets on high-value Week 5 picks and avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk. As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Last year 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!
Review of last week's picks.
The value picks we highlighted in this post last week went 1-4, which normally sounds pretty terrible -- but not so much in a week where chaos reigned. Underdogs went an incredible 9-6 outright in Week 4, and as a result, the general public picked more losers than winners on average. In fact, the average public pick 'em entry only got 7.2 games right out of 15 last week.
Of the three teams we highlighted that were favorites early in the week (Baltimore, Chicago, Denver), our picks went 1-2, but in comparison, the public only got 1.1 wins on average from those games. So it was pretty much a wash, and we were one final Denver defensive stand away from a much better week than the public on those games.
It was a worse week for the upset picks we highlighted, as neither Washington nor Cincinnati came close to winning. However, that’s also why they are called the "value gambles" that aren’t suitable for all pools. Based on win odds, you would have only expected 0.8 wins total from those two teams, so a week in which neither win isn't a huge shock.
Expert Week 5 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools.
In order to gain the biggest advantage in your NFL pick 'em pool, you need to know not only every team's win odds (i.e. the risk involved in making a pick), but also how popular of a pick it is. It's simple: When you pick less popular teams and they win, you will move quickly up the standings.
Based on win odds and pick popularity, the five teams highlighted below either offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 5 picks from your opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.
It's important to remember that we're not recommending all of the picks below — especially the "value gambles". The best Week 5 picks for your specific pool depend on several factors, including pool size, rules, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks customized for you based on all those factors.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Week 5 features several teams that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win, which is a change from the past four weeks. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side. Here are three of them:
Minnesota Vikings (at New York Giants)
The Vikings were a popular choice last week to beat the Bears on the road, and they lost. The Giants were a popular choice to beat Washington, and they won. So, it’s pretty easy to see why the public is relatively down on the Vikings and high on the Giants this week. The Vikings, though, are a 5.5-point favorite and have a 69-percent chance of winning, according to our models. The public is picking Minnesota 68 percent of the time, so you are getting a pretty solid favorite being picked at a slightly lower rate than its odds to win.
That may not sound like a huge value, but consider this for perspective: There have been nine other games so far this season in which a team was favored by five or 5.5 points. On average, the public picked the favorite 89 percent of the time and never less than 84 percent of the time.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Cleveland is back, baby! The Browns rebounded with a huge win over Baltimore, and it looks like the public is now ready to re-embrace Baker Mayfield and company after their opening week shellacking by the Titans. Meanwhile, San Francisco was on bye last week. The public has a short memory, and out of sight often means out of mind, so it’s easy to forget that San Francisco is 3-0 and playing at home. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points and our models give them a 65-percent chance of victory, but the public is picking San Francisco 64 percent of the time. Again, may not seem like a huge value, but relative to how the public normally treats favorites, it definitely makes Cleveland an unwise upset pick.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Has the public been burned by Tennessee being so unpredictable? Probably. The Titans have won twice as underdogs and lost twice as favorites, so the public has averaged getting 0.6 picks right in games involving Tennessee this year. The Titans are a three-point favorite here yet the public has swung the other way and is taking the Bills 52 percent of the time. Buffalo put up a fight against New England in Week 4, which likely made an impression with the public. But Bills quarterback Josh Allen did sustain a concussion on Sunday and his status for this game is still to be determined, so we could see some movement in both the line and public popularity in this one.
Favorite at a reasonable price.
Most favorites are overrated by the public, but the team below looks more fairly valued in Week 5. You should think twice about picking against them -- not because we think they are a lock to win (we certainly don’t), but because other games offer more compelling upset pick opportunities.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Green Bay Packers)
The Cowboys are just one of several favorites that are more fairly valued than usual and are being selected by the public at far lower rates than similar favorites in recent weeks. (An upset loss to the Drew Brees-less Saints in prime time on Sunday night is likely one reason why.) Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite at home and our models give it a 64-percent chance of winning, and the public is picking them 65 percent of the time. On average, the public is picking about one more upset in Week 5 than they have until now, so it makes sense to favor playing more favorites like Dallas this week.
If you’re going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. Take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is on you.
The pick below is not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, it’s probably not worth the risk. However, if you’re in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes, this highly unpopular underdog has a compelling profile.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)
While the public has generally leaned toward picking more upsets, there is one slight favorite that they are backing heavily. New Orleans is favored by just three points, tied for the second-smallest favorite this week. However, the public is picking them 84 percent of the time, which is the sixth-highest pick rate this week for a favorite.
New Orleans has won consecutive games as an underdog with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, but the offense has not been particularly impressive (less than 200 passing yards each week). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off a big road upset of the Rams. The Bucs have put up a combined 963 yards of total offense and have scored 86 points the past two weeks. Those factors explain why New Orleans is only a small favorite in this one, but the public is still very supportive of the Saints. In some pools, there is value in going contrarian against the one small favorite the public is treating more like a sure thing.
Which of these five NFL Week 5 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 5, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Minnesota or Tennessee, or you take a chance on an upset like Tampa Bay.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge.
We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!


Week 5 NFL picks, best bets from a legendary expert: This three-way football parlay pays out 6-1.
Handicapping legend Hank Goldberg just revealed his top parlay for Week 5.
A beloved national treasure, Goldberg is red-hot on his NFL best bets, going 8-4 this season after finishing last year on a 12-3 run. That makes Hammer 20-7 in his last 27 NFL best bets, a stunning 74 percent cash rate.
Already twice this season, in Weeks 1 and 3, Hammer swept his NFL best bets. Anyone who parlayed those picks was rewarded with 6-1 payouts.
This is the same handicapper who enjoyed 15 winning seasons in his 17-year run at ESPN. In 2017, Hammer competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 in against-the-spread picks. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
While the Saints are 3-1, they've looked lackluster offensively since quarterback Drew Brees injured his thumb in Week 2 against the Rams. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, just exploded offensively in a stunning 55-40 road upset of those same Rams.
The Saints mustered 266 yards in their 12-10 win over Dallas last week and only 265 yards the week before at Seattle. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to clear 200 passing yards in a game since replacing Brees. Goldberg is impressed with the new-look Bucs defense under Todd Bowles and knows Tampa Bay will not have to score 30-plus to keep up with this limited version of the Saints. Hammer expects a tight divisional contest, so grabbing more than a field goal is the way to go.
Goldberg also jumped all over one side of Packers vs. Cowboys, Sunday's glamorous matchup of 3-1 teams starting at 4:25 p.m. ET. The line is way off in that game, Hammer said. You need to see his NFL parlay before locking in any picks of your own.
What are Hammer's NFL Week 5 best bets? And what side of the Packers vs. Cowboys spread should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's Week 5 NFL best bets, all from the legendary handicapper who's 20-7 in his last 27 best bets.


Week 5 NFL Picks: Will the Cowboys finally get back on track?
October 10, 2020.
*Make sure to check back later this week as we add more NFL Week 5 picks.*
Week 5 NFL Picks: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) & Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New York Jets.
Ryan Gosling.
The Dallas Cowboys continue to find impressive ways to disappoint their fan base. They are now coming off back-to-back losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. One thing has become apparent with America’s Team, their defense is absolutely awful. The Browns were able to put up a shocking 49 points, and even though the final score seemed close, this game was out of arms reach quite early.
The offense has been lights out, with QB Dak Prescott throwing for 502 yards and four touchdowns in the loss. Dallas has the top-ranked offense in football, with the 30th ranked defense. Luckily, after what could be viewed as a tough opening schedule, they return home to take on the winless Giants.
New York fell 17-9 to the Los Angeles Rams after Daniel Jones threw a game-sealing interception in the final minute of a potential game-tying drive.
This game comes down to talent. Even with Golden Tate and Evan Engram, the Giants offense simply does not compare to Dallas.
Now, as much as I would love to confidently take Dallas minus the big number, their defense is scaring me away. They are 0-4 against the spread on the season and have not shown me enough to trust them covering more than a touchdown against this frisky Giants team.
They will be the first part of my 6.5 point teaser to get them to simply a field goal. The outcomes for this game are numerous; they can win by double digits, squeak out a small win, or even lose straight up. Who knows with Mike McCarthy and the boys in silver and blue. Taking them to a field goal will help mitigate the risk.
This spread actually opened at -11 and has been bet down to -9.5. You might be able to get a better number if you wait. Oh, and take the over.
Arizona Cardinals.
From one disappointing team to another, the Arizona Cardinals head to New York after two straight losses. They are nearly a touchdown underdog on the road, but for good reason. They will be facing a New York Jets team that is being called the worst in the league and could be missing their starting QB in Sam Darnold .
Although Darnold looked good last week, mostly because he started to use his legs and got some of his weapons back, they still couldn’t pull off the win against an injured Denver Broncos squad.
This is similar to the Cowboys, the talent difference here is substantial. Kyler Murray is a dual-threat weapon with his arm and legs, and the team has a legit WR1 in DeAndre Hopkins. The Jets have an injured Darnold, Frank Gore in the backfield, and Jamison Crowder as their top passing option.
I won’t overthink this one, I am taking the Cardinals ML as the second part of my teaser.
Official Week 5 NFL Picks: Cardinals ML/Cowboys -3 (-120) 2 units New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys OV54 (-110) 1 unit.
Thursday Night Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Chicago Bears.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be heading to Chicago to take on Nick Foles and the Bears terrible run game. Tom Brady is starting to finally hit his stride with this offense, throwing for five touchdowns last week, but will be coming into this game with a beat-up roster.
The team lost OJ Howard last week, while Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Scotty Miller are all questionable for this contest.
Luckily, it is not just the offense that is performing well this season. The Buccaneers defense is fourth in the league, allowing just over 310 total yards per game. Realistically, this is where I see the game being played. Tampa Bay’s defense will be the difference, forcing Nick Foles into making mistakes.
Plus, the Bears are impossible to trust especially on Thursday nights. The Bears are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday night games.
Official Week 5 NFL Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-110) 1 unit.
Drew Haynes.
The Cardinals hype train has really slowed following their 2-0 start and two subsequent losses in Weeks 3 and 4. I still know that this team has fantastic playmakers on both sides of the ball, a solid coaching staff, and a very special quarterback in Murray.
I expect them to right the ship very soon. But this NFL Week 5 pick is less about the Cardinals and more about the hapless Jets, who just last week allowed the Denver Broncos, led by UDFA second-year QB Brett Rypien, score 37 points on them.
As little faith as I have in this Jets defense, I may have less faith in this offense without Sam Darnold at the helm, which appears to be the most likely case for Sunday. He has had to use every bit of his playmaking ability to evade pass rushers and make things happen on this offense that lacks skill at every position.
Without him, I do not see how Joe Flacco can keep up with this Cardinals’ high-powered offense. Cardinals are the play.
Official Week 5 NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110) 2 units.
Other Week 5 NFL Picks from our expert handicappers.
James Aguirre.
George Templeton.
Indianapolis’ defense is getting a lot of praise, but since Gardner Minshew dissected them in week 1, the Colts have faced Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold. Baker Mayfield and the arsenal at his disposal will be a much bigger challenge. And even without Nick Chubb, the Browns will continue to prosper on the ground with Kareem Hunt.
Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers have two consecutive wins without Christian McCaffrey and somehow are an underdog at winless Atlanta. The Falcons have collapsed, and the clock is ticking on Dan Quinn. Expect a big game from Robby Anderson to pile on the misery for Atlanta.




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