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How Gamestop’s Nuttiness Will Change the Coming Bear Market.
The news media went all-in over the weekend trying to explain the significance of the Gamestop saga, but because few traders were asked about it, there was little in this torrent of analysis to enlighten. Most of the reporters, talking heads and pundits focused on the obvious, sensationalizing a story about how the little guys have drawn first blood and are about to stick it to giant hedge funds by targeting their short positions. This kind of claptrap makes for salacious reading, but there’s a much bigger story that has so far gone untouched. Before I explain, here’s some point-and-counterpoint to get you past the disingenuous swill being dished out in the blogosphere and by the mainstream media:
Popular Narrative : The Reddit/Robinhood mob (RRM) has declared war on hedge fund biggies, and so far the smart money has been getting its butt kicked. Reality : The damage so far is just a mosquito bite on the behind of hedge fund elephants like Steven A. Cohen, and the Reddit mob a five-year-old who has discovered where Daddy keep the matches.
PopularNarrative : “We’re going after Citadel next!” Reality : Nice try, kids, but this kind of hubris is going to boomerang on you. As a rallying cry, it makes good headline fodder, since the name ‘Citadel’ conjures up the financial establishment’s most impregnable fortress. In the end, though, you can bet on Citadel & Friends to change the game so that the edge you pishers currently enjoy evaporates quickly, assuming it hasn’t already.
Popular Narrative : “After Citadel, we’re going to squeeze shorts in silver.” Reality : We’re actually rooting for you on this one, since precious-metals markets are manipulated by unmitigated scumbags. And, yes, your merely having announced last week that silver is in your cross hairs seems to have provided a little added boost to silver quotes on Thursday and Friday. But before you take on the commodity markets, better read up on Nelson ‘Bunky’ Hunt, a billionaire when that was real money, but also a trader smarter than all of you put together. He got crushed trying to corner silver even though he’d done everything right. Hunt would have succeeded if Comex had not raised margin requirements to such heights that only two players were left in the game: Hunt and Eastman Kodak. This killed speculative demand, and eventually Hunt himself.
Popular Narrative : The Reddit/Robbinhood mob (RRM) has been making money hand-over-fist. Reality : The number of big winners is probably far smaller than imagined by the blogosphere and news media, and the sums are smaller. Don’t assume that all of the greedy little guys got out at the top, or that they will. Some will predictably become such believers in their omnipotence that they may actually buy the top, as occurred at the end of Bitcoin’s first mania.
Popular Narrative : The little guys have outfoxed the smart money. Reality : For a nanosecond, maybe. But how smart are they, really? Probably not one of them in 500 understands that certain option strategies they love to use, such as covered-writing exploding stocks, can backfire lethally. In fact, out-of-the-money options they’ve sold can be exercised, and this can happen well before the options expire. The unavoidable result is a stock-settlement mismatch that can turn seemingly winning bets into unanticipated disasters overnight. We may be hearing more about this soon.
Popular Narrative : Regulators will soon put a stop to this nonsense. Reality : No, they won’t. For one, the kids haven’t actually broken any laws; targeting shorts is nothing new, and it is only the ease of doing it in the blogosphere that is causing regulators to gnash their teeth and tug at their hair. For two, the ability of institutions and other players to short stocks with little hindrance is essential to keeping the markets running smoothly.
The Power of Desperate Buying.
Now to my salient point, and it is this: A mere week’s worth of short-targeting shenanigans has permanently altered the game in ways that will have deep and lasting consequences. To be clear, let me say again that SAC, Citadel and the Comex do not fear the mob on social media; rather, they understand that the would-be giant-slayers eventually will self-destruct because of their ignorance, inflated self-importance and reckless boldness. However, the Smart Guys do recognize that the war is asymmetrical , since the little guys don’t need to put any skin in the game to trigger off a massively costly short squeeze. All the little guys need do is mention in a chat room that a particular stock has short interest greater than, say, 25% of the float, and the squeeze is on. This kind of war is so very asymmetrical that Big Money cannot possibly fight it.
What this implies is that over time, short interest will eventually diminish to the point of insignificance. The bottom line for the stock market is that bull markets will become less bullish, and bear markets more bearish. Why? Consider that short covering is the most powerful propellant of bull markets. That’s because it is the only source of demand sufficiently urgent to push stocks through otherwise impenetrable layers of supply and daunting prior peaks. I say ‘urgent’, but ‘desperate’ is probably more accurate, since short covering is driven by margin calls from brokers frantically worried about a customer’s solvency. When we talk about buying the dips, the main buyers on market weakness, even moreso than bargain hunters, are short-covering bears.
How Bear Markets Work.
Short-covering is also the force behind the breathtaking rallies that occur in bear markets. From a psychological standpoint, the “purpose” of these rallies is to convince investors that stocks have turned the corner and are in a sustainable rebound. Short-squeeze spikes are a routine feature of bear markets, and they recur until an exhaustion spike going in the other direction destroys the last vestige of hopefulness.
But because short-interest numbers are about to decrease in the aggregate, it is predictable that, henceforth, short-covering will have less and less power in bull markets and bear markets. In the coming bear market (which my technical runes suggest may already have begun), we are likely to see downtrends that are more relentless than in the past, and sucker rallies that are not quite powerful or persuasive enough to keep hopeful losers in the game.
For now, though, as the big players attempt to shrink their short positions, their efforts will remain fully exposed and vulnerable to raids by the mob. The result will be wack-a-mole rallies in overly-shorted stocks for the foreseeable future. This will continue even as the stock market moves deeply into bear-market territory. However, the rallies will be isolated and add little boost to the broad averages. They may even act as a psychological depressant, a nagging reminder that global securities markets were never more than a giant casino game to begin with.


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THE MORNING LINE.
How Gamestop’s Nuttiness Will Change the Coming Bear Market.
The news media went all-in over the weekend trying to explain the significance of the Gamestop saga, but because few traders were asked about it, there was little in this torrent of analysis to enlighten. Most of the reporters, talking heads and pundits focused on the obvious, sensationalizing a story about how the little guys have drawn first blood and are about to stick it to giant hedge funds by targeting their short positions. This kind of claptrap makes for salacious reading, but there’s a much bigger story that has so far gone untouched. Before I explain, here’s some point-and-counterpoint to get you past the disingenuous swill being dished out in the blogosphere and by the mainstream media:
Popular Narrative : The Reddit/Robinhood mob (RRM) has declared war on hedge fund biggies, and so far the smart money has been getting its butt kicked. Reality : The damage so far is just a mosquito bite on the behind of hedge fund elephants like Steven A. Cohen, and the Reddit mob a five-year-old who has discovered where Daddy keep the matches.
PopularNarrative : “We’re going after Citadel next!” Reality : Nice try, kids, but this kind of hubris is going to boomerang on you. As a rallying cry, it makes good headline fodder, since the name ‘Citadel’ conjures up the financial establishment’s most impregnable fortress. In the end, though, you can bet on Citadel & Friends to change the game so that the edge you pishers currently enjoy evaporates quickly, assuming it hasn’t already.
Popular Narrative : “After Citadel, we’re going to squeeze shorts in silver.” Reality : We’re actually rooting for you on this one, since precious-metals markets are manipulated by unmitigated scumbags. And, yes, your merely having announced last week that silver is in your cross hairs seems to have provided a little added boost to silver quotes on Thursday and Friday. But before you take on the commodity markets, better read up on Nelson ‘Bunky’ Hunt, a billionaire when that was real money, but also a trader smarter than all of you put together. He got crushed trying to corner silver even though he’d done everything right. Hunt would have succeeded if Comex had not raised margin requirements to such heights that only two players were left in the game: Hunt and Eastman Kodak. This killed speculative demand, and eventually Hunt himself.
Popular Narrative : The Reddit/Robbinhood mob (RRM) has been making money hand-over-fist. Reality : The number of big winners is probably far smaller than imagined by the blogosphere and news media, and the sums are smaller. Don’t assume that all of the greedy little guys got out at the top, or that they will. Some will predictably become such believers in their omnipotence that they may actually buy the top, as occurred at the end of Bitcoin’s first mania.
Popular Narrative : The little guys have outfoxed the smart money. Reality : For a nanosecond, maybe. But how smart are they, really? Probably not one of them in 500 understands that certain option strategies they love to use, such as covered-writing exploding stocks, can backfire lethally. In fact, out-of-the-money options they’ve sold can be exercised, and this can happen well before the options expire. The unavoidable result is a stock-settlement mismatch that can turn seemingly winning bets into unanticipated disasters overnight. We may be hearing more about this soon.
Popular Narrative : Regulators will soon put a stop to this nonsense. Reality : No, they won’t. For one, the kids haven’t actually broken any laws; targeting shorts is nothing new, and it is only the ease of doing it in the blogosphere that is causing regulators to gnash their teeth and tug at their hair. For two, the ability of institutions and other players to short stocks with little hindrance is essential to keeping the markets running smoothly.
The Power of Desperate Buying.
Now to my salient point, and it is this: A mere week’s worth of short-targeting shenanigans has permanently altered the game in ways that will have deep and lasting consequences. To be clear, let me say again that SAC, Citadel and the Comex do not fear the mob on social media; rather, they understand that the would-be giant-slayers eventually will self-destruct because of their ignorance, inflated self-importance and reckless boldness. However, the Smart Guys do recognize that the war is asymmetrical , since the little guys don’t need to put any skin in the game to trigger off a massively costly short squeeze. All the little guys need do is mention in a chat room that a particular stock has short interest greater than, say, 25% of the float, and the squeeze is on. This kind of war is so very asymmetrical that Big Money cannot possibly fight it.
What this implies is that over time, short interest will eventually diminish to the point of insignificance. The bottom line for the stock market is that bull markets will become less bullish, and bear markets more bearish. Why? Consider that short covering is the most powerful propellant of bull markets. That’s because it is the only source of demand sufficiently urgent to push stocks through otherwise impenetrable layers of supply and daunting prior peaks. I say ‘urgent’, but ‘desperate’ is probably more accurate, since short covering is driven by margin calls from brokers frantically worried about a customer’s solvency. When we talk about buying the dips, the main buyers on market weakness, even moreso than bargain hunters, are short-covering bears.
How Bear Markets Work.
Short-covering is also the force behind the breathtaking rallies that occur in bear markets. From a psychological standpoint, the “purpose” of these rallies is to convince investors that stocks have turned the corner and are in a sustainable rebound. Short-squeeze spikes are a routine feature of bear markets, and they recur until an exhaustion spike going in the other direction destroys the last vestige of hopefulness.
But because short-interest numbers are about to decrease in the aggregate, it is predictable that, henceforth, short-covering will have less and less power in bull markets and bear markets. In the coming bear market (which my technical runes suggest may already have begun), we are likely to see downtrends that are more relentless than in the past, and sucker rallies that are not quite powerful or persuasive enough to keep hopeful losers in the game.
For now, though, as the big players attempt to shrink their short positions, their efforts will remain fully exposed and vulnerable to raids by the mob. The result will be wack-a-mole rallies in overly-shorted stocks for the foreseeable future. This will continue even as the stock market moves deeply into bear-market territory. However, the rallies will be isolated and add little boost to the broad averages. They may even act as a psychological depressant, a nagging reminder that global securities markets were never more than a giant casino game to begin with.


Ricks football picks blog.
On Wedn we had two Ncaa BB plays and both were easy winners.
Today I have a full slate of NCAA BB, NHL and NBA games to handicap along with the upcoming NFL games this weekend.
On the trading side of things, we put on 3 short put sales this morning that will expire at the close tomorrow. These are income trades with a very high margin of safety and a high annual rate of return.
Since posting these 2-day short put trades I have had 246 trades. 229 winners and 17 losers with a win rate of 93.09%. The profit factor is 4.27. That is a solid performance so far out of a method I came up with while sports was offline.
I put all my trades out on slack along with my sports picks.
Subscribers for only $49.00 a month get access to both sides, trading and sports picks.
To give you an idea of my morning message to subscribers, here is the one I sent out this morning:
If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:
Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.
Sports handicapping Season to date records, a unique opportunity selling put options, a review of some of my trading techniques. My thoughts for a Tuesday morning.
College football is over this season with a high scoring championship game Alabama 52 Ohio State 24.
I put the game out at a pass at -9 as I could see no edge on the game. A lot of people loved Alabama here, even my great contrarian indicators were right on this one
Our Record in NCAA FB this season was:
Season to Date Sides: 21-24.
Season to Date Totals: 9-4.
Combined Season to date: 30-28.
We started out strong in college football, withered in midseason, and picked up a few units toward the end with a 3 or 4 game win streak. Overall an uneventful college football season.
We are also winding down in NFL Football.
The NFL this season has been solid.
Season to Date Sides: 17-7-2 or 70.1%
Season to Date Totals: 7-7.
Combined Season to date: 24-14-2 or 63.15%
I will take that every year
We are in the heart of college hoops right now and we have been hovering around the even mark so far this season. No swings either way.
Season to Date Sides: 11-14.
Season to Date Totals: 5-5.
Combined Season to Date: 16-19.
Still, a lot more college hoops left, including March Madness.
For subscribers, I break down every college game that includes a top 25 team. This is a road map using some of the.
various things I look at when handicapping games. Some of the things I include are model projections, Variables, and public %
numbers. In addition on some games, I give comments on anything I see that I think is interesting on the game.
Also as a subscriber, you are free to ask me about any game, as I handicap them all. Most of the communications are now on my slack channels.
If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:
Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.
A new feature of my handicapping service is I post my stock and option trades to subscribers. This is what I trade during the day. I put it out there to give subscribers ideas as opposed to suggesting they take these trades. Everyone has to invest how they see fit based upon their analysis. But hopefully, you get to take some ideas away and learn some investing techniques.
My trades are broken down into 1. Income trades that typically are closed-end fund trades trading at a substantial discount to NAV and also have an annual income of between 5 and 10 percent a year. These tend to be longer-term trades as I am trading for income as a primary goal, and capital appreciation secondary.
2. #Meanreversion: These consist of buying in an oversold market under very strict parameters. Some of the features of these trades are they have no stop and tend to have rather large swings. But overall they tend to have a positive EV. Enough to put them in my investment routine. I have been trading these for years.
3. Short term swing trades: These are typically 3 or 4-day trades where I feel the stock is ripe for a bounce. The stock does not have to be oversold for me to make this trade, as in mean reversion.
4. #Shortput and #coveredcall: These are techniques I researched when sports betting was down completely. The covered calls tend to be used primarily to manage short put stocks where I have taken delivery of the stock. The short puts on the other hand consist of two types of trades:
A. for income, made on Thursday and expire at the close the next day. They usually have the following characteristics. A High annual rate of return, at least 20% from the strike price, no earnings announcements coming up for the two days of the trade. I have a screen I use for these and it is very strict in how I come up with my basket to trade on Thursday morning. Here is a chart of my trades since I started posting the short put sales:
As you can see these have been solid trades. 246 trades to date with 229 winners and 17 losers with a win rate of 93.09% and a profit factor of 4.27.
One thing to note is the drawdowns. We had one drawdown around trade 136 but quickly recovered. That is the mark of a good trading methodology.
All my subscribers can get access to these trades as part of the handicapping service.
If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:
Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.
In addition each morning on slack I give a premarket rundown on what I expect in the trading for the day, along with a review of the trades we have outstanding.
I have come a long way from 15 years ago when I started this site I have many subscribers that have been with me from the start. I still have ideas for improving the site and slack has helped a lot allowing interaction between subscribers during the ball games.
My goal is not only to produce positive EV plays but to keep subscribers out of trouble. I have been doing this online for over 20 years now.
As you know gamblers have a propensity to get in trouble, I was once one of them That is why I try to educate as much as I try to produce winning plays.


Sections.
Advertisement.
LSU's Eli Ricks grades out highest in college football in this category.
Share this article.
It’s no secret that freshman cornerback Eli Ricks was a major factor in LSU’s defensive efforts on an otherwise dismal 2020 college football season.
The cornerback totaled 20 tackles last year, 11 solo, along with five passes defensed, four interceptions and two touchdowns.
He also stood out above the rest of college football in one category during his rookie campaign.
Ricks registered an 81.9 grade in single coverage according to Pro Football Focus — one that was unrivaled by any other player.
Ricks earned several postseason honors after LSU’s 5-5 finish that was capped off with an upset win over Florida and a home victory over Ole Miss, including being named to the SEC All-Freshman team.
Ricks and LSU are set to open the 2021 college football season against UCLA on the road on Sept. 4.
It will be interesting to see how Ricks builds upon an already strong foundation as he progresses through his career with the Tigers.




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