02-07-2021, 06:48 PM
п»ї2021 NFL picks, Super Bowl best bets, Chiefs vs. Buccaneers predictions, parlay by proven model on 120-78 roll.
The 2021 Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is set for Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS from Raymond James Stadium. It is the final opportunity of the season for NFL bettors to get in on the action, so many will naturally be looking to go big. The latest Super Bowl LV odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Kansas City as a three-point favorite, while the over-under is set at 56, down one point from the opening line.
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Sep 29, 2019; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is sacked by New England Patriots middle linebacker Kyle Van Noy (53) during the second quarter at New Era Field.
Those lines will both be extremely popular targets for bettors. And if you're looking to spice up your Chiefs vs. Buccaneers bets, an NFL parlay might be the way to go with your NFL picks. If you're feeling bold, SportsLine's proven computer model is going big, putting together a two-way parlay of NFL best bets that could return a payout of almost 3-1.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 Super Bowl on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest 2021 Super Bowl NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. If you parlay its picks, you could be looking at payout of nearly 3-1. You can only see them here.
Top NFL predictions for Super Bowl LV.
One of the top Super Bowl LV NFL picks the model recommends: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs goes under the total of 56. Historically, oddsmakers have done a great job of setting the total in the Super Bowl. The over has cleared 27 times, while the under has hit 26 times, making it tough to lean on history for this particular bet.
But after the over hit five out of six times between Super Bowl XLVII and LII, that trend has reversed recently. The under has hit in back-to-back Super Bowls, including the under 53 clearing in Chiefs vs. 49ers last year and the under 56 hitting with a ton of room to spare when the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII.
Teams also have had a tough time going over once the number reaches the 50s in the Super Bowl. In fact, the last six times the Super Bowl total was in the 50s, the over only hit once -- Super Bowl LII, which didn't clear the over until overtime. The model has factored all of that in and it is projecting the under to hit in well over 50 percent of simulations.
How to make Super Bowl LV NFL picks, parlays.
The model has also made the call on which team covers, saying one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get every pick for Super Bowl LV here.
What are the top NFL picks for Super Bowl LV? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see the NFL best bets for Super Bowl LV, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
College Football betting picks against the spread November 4.
College Football betting picks against the spread November 4.
The MAC is in action all on their own on Wednesday, so that’s six college football betting games on it’s own. Then we have five more games on Thursday and Friday before a monster 47 game Saturday. That’s a total of 58 college football betting picks for me to screw up. I look forward to it!
For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.
NFL picks, 2021 Super Bowl best bets from a legendary expert: This 3-way parlay could pay 11-1.
Hammerin' Hank Goldberg is 51-34 on his NFL best bets and just locked in his top NFL picks for Super Bowl LV.
A season dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, postponed games and virtually no fans in the stands comes to a close on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers battle in the 2021 Super Bowl. The game features a classic quarterback matchup between six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, widely considered the greatest quarterback of all-time, and the 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes, the current face of the league who already has been anointed as the next legendary quarterback. Behind Mahomes and Brady, the Chiefs (16-2) and Buccaneers (14-5) ranked first and second, respectively, in passing yards per game during the regular season.
Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Super Bowl 55 odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under sits at 56. Before making any 2021 Super Bowl picks or parlays, see the NFL best bets from legendary handicapper Hammerin' Hank Goldberg over at SportsLine.
A beloved national treasure, Hammer enters Super Bowl LV on an extended heater: Over the last year-and-a-half, he is an incredible 51-34 on his NFL best bets.
This is the same prognosticator who enjoyed 15 winning seasons in his 17-year ESPN run. In 2017, Hammer competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 on against-the-spread NFL picks. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hammer has locked in three confident best bets for Super Bowl 55. If you parlay his picks, you could be looking at an 11-1 payout. You can only see them here.
Top 2021 Super Bowl NFL expert picks.
After thoroughly studying the Super Bowl LV lines, Hammer likes the teams to score under 56 points even though these are two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. The Buccaneers ranked third in scoring during the regular season, averaging 30.8 points per game, while the Chiefs were sixth at 29.6. In their conference championship games two weeks ago, the Chiefs scored 38, while the Buccaneers put up 31.
But these teams scored just a combined 51 points in their Week 12 matchup, a 27-24 Kansas City victory. Since then, Tampa Bay's defense has improved, allowing just 20.6 points per game and not giving up more than 27 points in any contest.
How to make 2021 Super Bowl NFL parlays.
Hammer, who has inside sources throughout the league, also jumped on one team to "exploit a weakness" and cover the 2021 Super Bowl spread. He also loves an epic prop bet that pays more than 2-1. You can only see his best bets here.
Chiotti’s First Round 2021 NFL Mock Draft.
As we get past the halfway mark of the NFL season, Patrick Chiotti shares his first round NFL mock draft. How many QBs go in the top 10?
November 4, 2020.
Chiotti’s First Round 2021 NFL Mock Draft | Picks 11-20.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama.
Behind 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow, the Bengals offense looks drastically different this season. They have a solid receiving core with Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, and rookie sensation Tee Higgins. This pick could have been used to upgrade the offensive line, but I firmly believe the team will be investing money in their line when free agency opens. The Bengals need to add more playmakers to their defense and desperately need to upgrade their cornerback situation.
Patrick Surtain II from Alabama could be the playmaking cornerback that they need to start their defensive improvements. Surtain, the son of former NFL cornerback Patrick Surtain, possesses great skills that should transfer over to the pro game nicely. He plays very well as a boundary corner, squeezing the receiver to the sideline and forces the quarterback to make difficult throws into tight windows.
12. Carolina Panthers: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida.
Adding more firepower to the offense, Matt Rhule selects arguably the most complete tight end of the class with the 12th overall selection in the first round of this NFL mock draft. Kyle Pitts has the makings of a dominant NFL tight end, possessing great size and shifty route running. In an offense that already features two of the league’s best receivers in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson and the league’s most intriguing running back in Christian McCaffrey, Pitts could help the Panthers explode in 2021.
Pitts has experience working all across the formation, working as both an in-line tight end and flexed out as a receiver. Assuming that Teddy Bridgewater is still the quarterback in Carolina in 2021, Pitts’ catch radius and athleticism will give Bridgewater another reliable target in the passing game.
13. Detroit Lions: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota.
Marvin Jones will be a free agent after the 2020 season, and the Lions need to add another wide receiver to help Matthew Stafford as he approaches the twilight of his career. Rashod Bateman would be the perfect addition to the Lions offense in 2021. Adding Bateman gives Stafford another quality target outside of Kenny Golladay.
Bateman has excellent route running abilities and knows how to work after the catch, excelling in breaking through arm tackles for huge gains. He has good size for a receiver, but he’s not the biggest target on the field. However, he is aggressive while the ball is in the air and finishes contested catches often, despite the overall lack in size.
14. Denver Broncos: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech.
Denver’s defense suffered a major loss when they lost Chris Harris, Jr. in free agency, but the team traded for A.J. Bouye during the offseason to add a veteran presence to the secondary. Bouye has played sparingly after suffering some injuries early this season, and rookie cornerback Michael Ojemudia has stepped in nicely, with Bryce Callahan playing both outside and in the slot. The Broncos could move on from Bouye this offseason for a cheaper and younger option in their secondary.
Caleb Farley could be the player they replace Bouye with in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Farley has experience working in both zone and man concepts and would be an ideal fit for Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme. His physical style of play would be welcome in the Mile High City.
15. San Francisco 49ers: OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State.
In the Niners run game, being aggressive and moving well across formations is key to opening up huge holes for the runners. Wyatt Davis, the interior offensive lineman out of Ohio State, makes perfect sense for San Francisco. His aggressive nature and fluidity make him a natural fit for Kyle Shanahan’s rushing offense, which features mainly outside zone concepts.
Davis’ work in pass protection could also help boost their offensive line play, as the Niners have given up 19 sacks on the season so far. Whether or not the Niners decide to continue with Jimmy G under center, they will need to bolster the offensive line to keep the run game going at a high level.
16. Miami Dolphins: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL)
The Dolphins continue to add to the defensive side of the ball with this selection. Gregory Rousseau had a monster season in 2019, totaling 15.5 sacks and two forced fumbles for the Hurricanes. He has great size and length and certainly knows how to use it to his advantage when rushing the passer.
In this first-round mock draft, the Dolphins already added a dynamic linebacker in Micah Parsons, but add a dynamic rusher off the edge to push themselves further into defensive dominance in the AFC East. With their secondary playing at a high level, putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks could be the cherry on top for Miami.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
Sorry to disappoint anyone here, but this is not a Clemson player being selected by Mike Mayock in the first round. Jaylen Twyman could add another element to the Raiders young defensive front that features 2019 first-round pick Clelin Ferrell and their emerging star in 2019 fourth-round selection Maxx Crosby.
Twyman doesn’t have an overly imposing size in the interior of the defensive line, but he knows how to utilize his pad level relatively well, recording 10.5 sacks in his 2019 season. He utilizes his speed off the ball and low pad level to create plays in the backfield in both rushing the passer and stopping the run.
18. Chicago Bears: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue.
Allen Robinson II has been a consistent pass catcher for the Bears, who continue to go through an identity crisis on offense. Adding a dynamic playmaker like Purdue’s Rondale Moore could help open up Matt Nagy’s playbook even more for whoever is under center for the Bears in 2021.
Moore is arguably one of the fastest, if not THE fastest wide receiver in this class, and his skill set can be utilized in several ways. Whether it’s in the quick game or deep shots, Moore is a threat to score any time he has the ball in his hands.
19. Philadelphia Eagles: OC Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma.
This may be Jason Kelce’s last season in the NFL, and the Eagles desperately need to upgrade their offensive line as it is. The Eagles offensive line has given up an abysmal 28 sacks so far in the 2020 season. Oklahoma’s Creed Humphrey seems like a perfect replacement for the veteran center.
Humphrey has the leadership skills and physical skills to be a quality center in the NFL. His past as a wrestler shows in his blocking style, as he uses his strong lower half to throw interior lineman off their angles and remains patient while not getting overly physical in his blocks.
20. Cleveland Browns: S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
The Browns made several moves to bolster their secondary this offseason and early in the season. They brought in veteran safeties Andrew Sendejo, Karl Joseph, and Ronnie Harrison, but they will likely be looking to draft a defensive back early in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Hamsah Nasirildeen is a do-it-all type of safety who possesses excellent length, size, and versatility. He has the size and closing speed to play in deep alignments and close to the line of scrimmage. His length gives him a wide tackling radius, and he takes full advantage of it, coming downhill fast but under control. He could become a difference-maker for the Cleveland defense in 2021.
Chiotti’s First Round 2021 NFL Mock Draft.
As we get past the halfway mark of the NFL season, Patrick Chiotti shares his first round NFL mock draft. How many QBs go in the top 10?
November 4, 2020.
First Round | Picks 21-32.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams): DT Jay Tufele, USC.
The Jaguars have one of the worst run defenses in the league and desperately need to bring more pressure from the interior defensive line. With no real pass rush presence outside of Josh Allen, the Jaguars must address their issues on the defensive front, including Tavon Bryant.
Jay Tufele is one of the more dominant interior players in this class. He uses his quickness off the ball, body control, and strength to push the pocket and create pressure from the interior. Tufele could help Allen and 2020 first-round pick K’Lavon Chaisson reach the quarterback more often in 2021.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama.
During this offseason, there were rumors that Anthony Castonzo was mulling retirement, but Castonzo returned for the 2020 season. With his future in doubt, the Colts could very well be in the market to draft an offensive tackle in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Alex Leatherwood could offer the Colts a young, suitable replacement should Castonzo leave for good after the 2020 season. He’s a proficient pass blocker but still needs some work in his technique and aggressiveness. Having an All-Pro guard in Quenton Nelson next to him should make for an easier transition to the NFL.
23. Green Bay Packers: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama.
The Packers made a questionable decision not drafting a wide receiver in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, instead opting to draft quarterback Jordan Love. This move was clearly upsetting to Aaron Rodgers, who was vocal about the team’s need for more playmaking catch passers outside of Davante Adams.
They don’t make the same mistake in this first round 2021 mock draft. The Packers make the right move by selecting DeVonta Smith , the star receiver from Alabama. Smith has great separation skills and soft hands, making him an ideal running mate to Adams and a reliable target for Rodgers.
24. Baltimore Ravens: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan.
Baltimore might be in the market for an EDGE in 2021, as Yannick Ngakoue is set to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. With the talent level of quarterbacks in the AFC North beginning to rise with the emergence of Burrow and the resurgence of Ben Roethlisberger, having a quality pass rusher is going to be extremely important going forward for the Ravens if they want to continue to be a top contender.
Kwity Paye would be an ideal target for the Ravens in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. While Paye is labeled as a power rusher, he has a knack for creating angles and crushing the pocket quickly, recording 6.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 2019. If the Ravens let Ngakoue walk this offseason, Paye would be a suitable replacement.
25. Arizona Cardinals: OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas.
As the Cardinals offense continues to run at a high level thanks to the growth of Kyler Murray and the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals offense still has some holes to fill in the 2021 draft. Offensive tackle is an area the team can afford to upgrade next season.
Samuel Cosmi could give the Cardinals an athletic, young tackle with tremendous upside. He moves extremely well for his size at 6’7″, 300 pounds, and can dominate pass rushers at times, but he’s still quite raw and inconsistent with his technique.
26. New Orleans Saints: QB Zach Wilson, BYU.
Taysom Hill is not the future quarterback for the Saints, and neither is Jameis Winston. This could very well be the offseason in which Sean Payton and his staff find their heir apparent to Drew Brees, and they find him in the first round of this NFL mock draft.
Zach Wilson has put together an impressive resume and has earned some well-deserved hype so far in the draft process. After an up-and-down 2019, Wilson has come out with guns blazing in 2020 , including putting together a 400-yard, four-touchdown performance against Houston. If Brees were to play one more season, it would be a great opportunity for Wilson to learn under one of the game’s greatest quarterbacks.
27. Tennessee Titans: DT Christian Barmore, Alabama.
This offseason, the Titans made a baffling move by trading their Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey to the Denver Broncos for a seventh-round draft pick. However, this move did pave the way for Jeffery Simmons to be the lead man in the interior of the defensive line for the Titans. There is still room for improvement along the defensive front, though.
Christian Barmore is a large presence on the defensive line and could be a good complimentary piece to Simmons, who is versatile enough to play across the formation. With Simmons and Barmore, the Titans could have a dominant defensive front if they decide to extend Jadeveon Clowney as well.
28. Buffalo Bills: OG Trey Smith, Tennessee.
Buffalo parted ways with Quenton Spain recently in a surprise move and could be in play for a guard in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and get one in the first round of this NFL mock draft. Continuing to progress, Josh Allen should be their biggest priority, and they can continue to do so by giving him the proper protection and support in the run game.
Trey Smith is an ideal pick here for the Bills, as he has the dominant physical traits to be a successful blocker at the next level. He works up to the second level very well, creating big holes and opportunities for running backs to make big gains on the ground. In pass protection, Smith is a punishing blocker, often taking advantage of his opponents’ leverage and mauling them.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL)
Carrying one of the older defensive fronts in the league, Tampa Bay could be looking at getting younger off the edge this offseason. With Shaq Barrett supposed to hit free agency and Jason Pierre-Paul on the wrong side of 30, they could very well be looking to add an edge defender in the first round of the draft.
Quincy Roche was the second half of the Hurricanes’ talented pass-rush duo and accounted for 13 sacks in 2019. His explosiveness and hand usage make him a dangerous threat off the edge. Keeping Barrett around and adding Roche to the rotation would keep the Bucs defense fresh and dominant into 2021.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Patrick Jones, Pittsburgh.
The Chiefs’ pass rush has struggled this season and is currently in the middle of the pack in sacks with 17 through eight games this season. Frank Clark has 3.0 sacks but trails Chris Jones for the team lead in sacks. The Chiefs could face issues late in the season if they can’t get pressure off the edge.
In 2021, they could add to their defensive arsenal by drafting Patrick Jones from Pittsburgh in the first round of this NFL mock draft. With a quick get off and fluid hips, Jones has been dominant for the Panthers, recording 8.5 sacks in 2019 and already having two games with 3.0 sacks in 2020. Pairing Jones with Clark could make the AFC West just a bit easier for the reigning champs.
31. New York Jets (from Seattle): CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina.
The Jets traded away Jamal Adams to the Seahawks and got this pick in return. They have some talent in the secondary in 2020 third-round pick Ashtyn Davis, Marcus Maye, and Bradley McDougald, but the Jets desperately need a quality cornerback to help their defense.
Jaycee Horn is a dominant corner that uses his size and physicality to bully wide receivers. He has the versatility to play either man or zone and still play aggressively. The Jets need to rebuild their defensive identity, and Horn would be a great way to revitalize the unit.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State.
Vance McDonald will be 31 in 2021, and the team could move on from him and Eric Ebron if they so choose to. With the emergence of rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson as legitimate receiving threats, Ben Roethlisberger could use an athletic playmaking tight end in the first round of this NFL mock draft to elongate his career in the Steel City.
Pat Freiermuth is arguably the most well-rounded tight end in the class. He has the athletic ability you want in a receiving tight end, but he also has a strength in the blocking game, where a player like Ebron is lacking. The Steelers offense is already dangerous with Juju Smith-Schuster, Claypool, Johnson, and James Conner, but adding in an all-around threat in Freiermuth could make this a truly dominating offensive attack.
Like or dislike your team’s selection in this 2021 first-round NFL mock draft? Follow @PatrickChiotti and @PFN365 on Twitter to share your thoughts.
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