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2021 Super Bowl prop bets: Coin toss betting odds and predictions.
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The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to square off at Raymond James Stadium Sunday night in Super Bowl LV . Below, we analyze the 2021 Super Bowl coin toss prop bet odds and offer our picks and predictions for the Big Game.
2021 Super Bowl coin toss prop bets.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
2021 Super Bowl prop bets: Coin toss outcome.
Heads -105 Tails -105.
In Super Bowl history, the results have been almost split. Tails has been the result 29 times, with heads coming up the other 25 times. Tails has been the result in six of the last seven years since Super Bowl XLVIII.
I like TAILS to continue that hot streak, because after all, tails never fails.
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2021 Super Bowl prop bets: Which team will win the coin toss?
Chiefs -105 Buccaneers -105.
As the road team, the Chiefs will call the toss Sunday. In their eight away games this season, the Chiefs were 4-4 calling the toss. When they won the flip, they chose to defer all four times.
As for the Buccaneers, they won the toss four times in their four home games when the other team called the flip. In three of those wins, they deferred, opting to receive in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons.
It’s a toss-up (pun intended), but I’m leaning CHIEFS (-105) here to win the toss and defer.
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2021 Super Bowl prop bets: What will be the decision of the coin toss winner?
DEFER (-500) is the wise choice here. Both the Chiefs and Buccaneers prefer to get the ball in the second half. The Chiefs deferred in all four of their coin toss wins as the road team this season, and the Buccaneers deferred in three of their four choices at home.
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2021 Super Bowl prop bets: What will the call for the coin toss be?
Heads -110 Tails -110.
The Chiefs will be the ones calling the toss as the road team. It’s anyone’s guess what they will call at midfield, but I’ll lean TAILS (-110) here.
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Betting odds to win the 2020 Big 12 Championship.
For the last five seasons, the Big 12 has been Oklahoma's to lose. Since Bob Stoops arrived in 1999, the Sooners have long been the most effective team at stacking up Big 12 titles, but that ramped up another notch once Stoops added Lincoln Riley to his staff in 2015—Oklahoma has won each title since.
Can somebody dethrone the Sooners this season? It might be a closer race than in some other years, as BetMGM has four schools have league championship odds of 11/1 or better, according to Yahoo Sports.
And that makes for one of the more fascinating Big 12 seasons in recent memory. Every league team is attempting to get one non-conference game in before the Big 12 season starts in full on Sept. 26. Once it does, the journey toward the 2020 league title begins.
Oklahoma once again looks like a force and a strong bet to reach the conference championship game. Who's going to be the Sooners' opponent if they do get there, or replace Oklahoma should the Sooners stunningly fall flat? Of those four teams with strong league title odds, two haven't ever reached a Big 12 Championship Game. That meshes with recent history; in both 2017 and 2019, Oklahoma defeated a first-time Big 12 title game participant.
Here are BetMGM's odds for the 2020 Big 12 title.
(Photo: Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports)
The good news about Kansas essentially having 100/1 odds for those who are a bit more, ahem, risk inclined? Other teams have stunned with even more Lloyd Christmas odds—Leicester City famously won the English Premier League in soccer with incredible 5000/1 odds just a few years ago. And … that’s about all the positivity. Kansas hasn’t won multiple Big 12 games since 2008; to win the Big 12 the Jayhawks would probably have to win two league games … times four. An 8-1 mark would probably put a team in the Big 12 title game … it’s just incredibly difficult to see Kansas getting to that point this year.
(Photo: Scott Wachter, USA TODAY Sports)
It’s interesting that the Red Raiders’ odds to win the conference are closer to Kansas than they are to the No. 8 team on this list. It’s tough to project exactly what Texas Tech will look like as they attempt to speed the process along with transfers like Arizona’s Colin Schooler, while hoping that quarterback Alan Bowman is able to put together a full season. Can Bowman give Texas Tech the ability to outscore some of the league’s elite teams? That may be what’s necessary for the Red Raiders to become a Big 12 title contender, in addition to the much-needed defensive improvements.
The team that the Wildcats were in defeating Oklahoma last season? That’s the squad Kansas State will need to be on a consistent basis in order to define itself as a legitimate Big 12 title contender. Yahoo ranked the Wildcats one spot higher than this in its Big 12 predictions, and while Kansas State looks to be a bowl team yet again this season, it’s a sizable leap to become the league’s best team. Can Skylar Thompson make the most of a young, but athletic receiving corps? That — along with a mostly new offensive line coming together quickly — could be the key to allowing the Wildcats to jump into the top half of the Big 12 this season.
(Photo: Brian Bahr, Getty)
One of two teams with the biggest gap between BetMGM’s odds and Yahoo’s predictions, Baylor has the seventh-best odds to win the conference but was ranked fifth by Yahoo. The Bears are largely starting over on defense, but could get a boost from transfers like William Bradley-King and Dillon Doyle. That’s also the area where new coach Dave Aranda’s creativity could pay off. Offensively, Baylor has both skill position talent and an experienced returning quarterback, though Charlie Brewer will need to stay healthy. The Bears were just a hair away from winning the Big 12 Championship last season, but with so few returning starters — particularly on defense — getting back to that point this year could be tough.
(Photo: Scott Sewell, USA TODAY Sports)
This is other team with the biggest gap between BetMGM’s odds and Yahoo’s picks. Yahoo picked West Virginia eighth, while the odds have West Virginia has the sixth-most-likely team to win the Big 12 Championship this year. The Mountaineers appeared to find something last year as the season went on, with Jarret Doege emerging as a legitimate starting quarterback capable of taking advantage of the Mountaineers’ weapons at wide receiver and helping to open up the running game. And the Mountaineers’ box players could rank among the top half in the conference. The Mountaineers could be near the bottom of the league, but also have top half upside.
(Photo: Kevin Jairaj, USA TODAY Sports)
TCU has 20/1 odds, per BetMGM, but Yahoo actually ranked the Horned Frogs sixth, behind Baylor, after TCU coach Gary Patterson revealed quarterback Max Duggan’s condition. TCU still has a defense that looks like the Big 12’s best and could have the nation’s best safety duo. There’s plenty of talent at receiver and at running back, where the Horned Frogs added a 247Sports Composite five-star player in Zach Evans, who isn’t even a shoo-in to start. But it all comes back to that quarterback question. It’s tough to win in the Big 12 without high-level quarterback play; for the Horned Frogs to be among the Big 12’s best teams, Duggan would likely need to return fairly quickly (it’s no given that he’ll return at all this year), and Matthew Downing will have to hold down the fort until then.
(Photo: Ben Queen, USA TODAY Sports)
(Photo: Rob Ferguson, USA TODAY Sports)
With 18 returning offensive and defensive starters, few teams in the entire nation can match the Cowboys’ returning production … if anyone can. That makes this one of Mike Gundy’s most capable teams in years, potentially since the 2011 team finished just shy of the national championship game and No. 3 in the nation. The headliners come on offense, where dynamic quarterback Spencer Sanders enters his second year as a starter while running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace are both among the nation’s best at their respective positions. And with 10 starters back on defense, there’s a case to be made that the Cowboys could put together a top 25 unit on that side of the ball.
(Photo: Ronald Martinez, Getty)
Bud Elliott’s famous Blue-Chip Ratio holds that teams need to sign more blue-chippers (four and five star recruits) than non-blue-chippers over their last four classes. And while Texas frequently passes the Blue-Chip Ratio test the Longhorns do so with flying colors this year. Of teams that are playing this season, only Alabama and Georgia have higher percentages than Texas. So the talent level is high. And so, too, is the experience. The Longhorns saw a promising season last year derailed by injuries, but that forced playing time on some defenders who will be front-line guys this year, and Texas has both a senior quarterback in Sam Ehlinger and plenty of places for him to go with the ball.
1. Oklahoma (-120)
(Photo: Kevin Jairaj, USA TODAY Sports)
The Sooners have to be the Big 12 favorite until they don’t win the league, something that hasn’t happened in the five years that Lincoln Riley has been on campus. That string has seen Oklahoma use three different starting quarterbacks — and in all five years, the Sooner quarterback has finished the year as a Heisman Trophy finalist — with Spencer Rattler up next. Rattler will have plenty of help in what should be an outstanding offensive line, while the Sooner defense has a chance to be better in Alex Grinch’s second year. The main concern here is the defensive line, particularly its depth while Oklahoma waits for Ronnie Perkins to return from suspension.
Oklahoma vs Iowa State – Big 12 Championship Odds, Pick & Prediction.
The Big 12 Championship game is set as the #11 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) play the #7 Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) in Arlington on Saturday, December 19, 2020. Iowa State won the Big 12 regular season titles by one and a half games and Oklahoma held off third-place Oklahoma State by one game. This game will air live on ABC at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Through 10 games, the Oklahoma offense is averaging 43.4 points per game and 485.1 yards per game, 327.1 through the air and 158.0 on the ground. T.J. Pledger leads the team with 449 rushing yards and five touchdowns, and Marvin Mims has a team high 29 receptions for 482 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, the Sooners are allowing 22.0 points and 322.3 yards, 234.2 passing and 88.1 rushing.
The Iowa State offense is averaging 34.0 points per game and 441.7 yards per game, 241.8 through the air and 199.9 rushing. Breece Hall, who should be a Heisman finalist, leads the team with 1,357 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, and Xavier Hutchinson has a team high 50 receptions for 612 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, the Cyclones are allowing 21.3 points and 338.1 yards, 235.0 passing and 103.1 rushing.
Below is my pick for the #11Oklahoma Sooners vs #7 Iowa State Cyclones.
Last time out, Oklahoma clinched their berth in the Big 12 Championship game with a 27-14 home win over Baylor. Oklahoma scored the first 17 points of the game and were never in danger of even being in a close ballgame in this one. Spencer Rattler went 20/28 for 193 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed the ball 15 times for 50 yards and one touchdown and added five receptions for 48 yards. Defensively, the Sooners allowed 288 total yards and forced two Baylor interceptions.
Iowa State finished off their regular season with a dominant 42-6 home win over the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Cyclones scored the first 35 points of the game and shut out West Virginia until early in the fourth quarter. Brock Purdy went 20/23 for 247 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and rushed the ball seven times for 38 yards and an additional touchdown. Breece Hall rushed the ball 22 times for 97 yards and one touchdown and hauled in three receptions for 56 yards and an additional touchdown. Defensively, the Cyclones allowed just 263 total yards on the day.
Series History: Iowa State beat Oklahoma earlier this season, but the Sooners still hold a commanding 76-7-2 all-time series advantage.
CFB Predictions: I like Oklahoma -4.5 to cover and win the Big 12 Championship.
2020 CFB Picks Results: 57-32.
Big 12 Championship Betting History.
Playoff В· AAC В· ACC В· Big 10 В· Big 12 В· C-USA В· MAC В· MWC В· Pac-12 В· SEC В· BCS.
The Big 12 Championship returned in 2017, following a six-year hiatus when the title game went away after the league dropped to 10 teams.
The conference had 12 teams that were divided equally into the North and South divisions until 2010. In 2011, Nebraska and Colorado left the conference, while Missouri and Texas A&M exited the league to head to the Southeastern Conference in 2012. TCU and West Virginia entered in 2012 to round out the 10-team conference.
Baylor Bears Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Kansas State Wildcats Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma State Cowboys TCU (Texas Christian) Horned Frogs Texas Longhorns Texas Tech Red Raiders West Virginia Mountaineers.
The inaugural Big 12 title game was held in St. Louis in 1996, before heading to San Antonio in 1997 and alternating between the two cities in 1998 and 1999. Kansas City hosted this game in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, and 2008, while the championship was held in Texas in 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2007 (Irving in '01, Houston in '02 and '05, and San Antonio in '07).
The game found a permanent home in Arlington, Texas in 2009 and 2010 before the six-year stoppage of this game. In 2017, the Big 12 championship was housed at AT&T Stadium, the home of the Dallas Cowboys and has been the home of this game ever since.
Big 12 Betting History Results & Notes.
History - Betting Notes.
Big 12 Championship Historical Notes.
In the 18-year history of the game, Oklahoma has appeared in the game 11 times, which is the most of all Big 12 schools. The Sooners have come away with 10 wins, which is also the most in conference history. Texas (3) and Nebraska (2) are the only other schools that were able to capture multiple Big 12 championships.
In 2019, the Sooners won their third straight Big 12 title since the championship returned by defeating Baylor 30-23 in overtime. Oklahoma failed to cover as 9 ВЅ-point favorites.
Oklahoma notched another conference title in 2020 as the Sooners held off Iowa State , 27-21 as the Cyclones made their first ever Big 12 championship appearance.
Big 12 Championship: College football betting odds and picks for Oklahoma vs. Iowa State.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State Odds.
Oklahoma Odds: -5.5 (-115) [ BET NOW ]
Over/Under: 57.5 (-115 / -105) [ BET NOW ]
Time: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET.
Social media was buzzing after the College Football Playoff committee put Iowa State at No. 6 in the most recent playoff rankings. Could the Cyclones actually sneak in to the four-team playoff if things break right? They would likely need Notre Dame to pull off an upset over Clemson as well as possibly Tennessee over Texas A&M.
Oh, and Iowa State would also need to defeat Oklahoma for a second time this season on Saturday afternoon in Arlington, TX. At bare minimum, if the Cyclones take down the Sooners, it would give the program its first conference title in over 100 years.
Let’s take a quick look at each team before diving in to where I see value from a betting perspective. Interestingly, Oklahoma closed as a higher favorite earlier this season when these two teams met in Ames, IA.
Oklahoma Sooners.
After a stunning loss at home to Kansas State in its conference opener, Oklahoma then lost a thriller in Ames to these same Cyclones to fall to 0-2 in the Big 12 for the first time since 1998. However, the Sooners bounced back with a thrilling four-overtime win over Texas and closed out the regular season with six straight victories.
So, what happened? Well, quarterback Spencer Rattler gained valuable experience — which head coach Lincoln Riley didn’t have to worry about with his previous quarterbacks who transferred in from other Power 5 schools.
That said, this is not your older brother’s Oklahoma squad. The offense is still extremely good — but not elite. Rattler is still growing under center, and he doesn’t have the most explosive group of wide receivers we’ve seen in Norman. There are also issues along the offensive line, which ranks 89th in Adjusted Line Yards, per Football Outsiders. That hasn’t helped an underwhelming rushing attack that had to deal with plenty of attrition at the running back position entering the season.
When you think of a Riley offense, the quarterback position may come to your mind first; but in reality, it all starts with the ground game. And this year, the Sooners are averaging only 4.1 yards per carry, which ranks 78th in the nation. Just take a look at the discrepancy between this season and the first three under Riley:
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson did recently return to action, which has provided a boost to the rushing attack — but it’s still lacking what Riley is used to.
While the offense has taken a step back in 2020, the defense has continued to improve under second-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who has elevated this unit from one of the worst in the Power 5 to a respectable group that ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play. It all starts up front with the Sooners defensive line, which ranks:
6th in Adjusted Line Yards, 10th in Opportunity Rate, 3rd in Stuff Rate; and 18th in Sack Rate.
This is an aggressive defense that can really get after opposing quarterbacks and generate havoc. In fact, per Pro Football Focus, Oklahoma has three players in Nik Bonitto, Ronnie Perkins and Isaiah Thomas who each rank inside the top 10 in generating havoc among 197 edge rushers with at least 100 snaps this season.
Iowa State Cyclones.
Similar to Oklahoma, Iowa State stumbled out of the gates with a home loss to Louisiana. Although, that loss looked less undermining as the season progressed.
The offense boasts an experienced quarterback with pro potential in junior Brock Purdy, a deep group of tight ends, and the nation’s leading rusher, Breece Hall.
The offensive line has also been a bright spot, led by anchor Collin Newell at center. Junior left guard Derek Schweiger has filled in admirably for Trevor Downing (who could return this week). Meanwhile, Left Tackle Sean Foster has improved tremendously late in the season — as have the two freshmen on the right side: Right Guard Darrell Simmons and Right Tackle Jake Remsburg.
And, unsurprisingly, Iowa State’s patented 3-3-5 defense is once again rock-solid at the point of attack — both from efficiency- and havoc-based perspectives. Opponents have not been able to run the ball on the Cyclones (3.1 yards per rush), but teams have been able to connect on explosive plays in the passing game, which is something to watch out for on Saturday.
Betting Analysis & Pick.
There is no doubt that the Oklahoma defense is an improved unit since the first time these two teams met back in early October. The Sooners not only have more experience under their belts, but moreover, neither freshman cornerback DJ Graham (who has played very well) nor star defensive end Ronnie Perkins played in that game.
Nonetheless, I do think the market is overrating this defense. After all, the Sooners gave up 38, 37 and 45 points in their first three conference games. The defensive metrics are rock-solid, but OU has certainly benefited from a schedule of five consecutive struggling offenses (especially for Big 12 standards) in Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas Tech.
Ultimately, I trust the Iowa State defensive backs more in a matchup between two defenses that have each allowed 5.2 yards per play (30th nationally). Brock Purdy can exploit OU’s secondary over the middle with the deepest tight end group in the country for my money. Oklahoma’s aggressive defense has also allowed way too many broken runs (118th defending rush explosiveness) — which Breece Hall can certainly exploit.
Additionally, I have more faith in Purdy than Rattler to avoid making a critical mistake late in a game I expect to be close. Iowa State also ranks 10th in sack rate (and 13th in sack rate on passing downs), which should come in handy against Oklahoma’s pressure. Rattler should be more poised this time around after already seeing the Iowa State defense in his first ever road start, but the experience edge goes to Purdy here.
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