football picks week 9

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NFL picks, predictions for Week 9: Packers rebound vs. 49ers; Colts stay hot; Tua leads Dolphins upset.
Week 9 of the NFL football season means we are past the midpoint.
The week starts with a rematch of last year's NFC championship game between the Packers and 49ers, a key game for both teams in this year's playoff race.
The Sunday schedule features five matchups between teams with winning records, and all of those games have intrigue. The cross-conference matchups between, Chicago and Tennessee, Seattle and Buffalo and Miami and Arizona should be fun. Baltimore and Indianapolis meet in a battle of AFC contenders, and it builds up toward the Sunday Night Football rematch between New Orleans and Tampa Bay. These are games that should impact the playoff picture later.
Last week was an unpredictable mess in our picks – the first losing record in a single week. We'll try to bounce back to start the second half of the season.
Last Week: 6-8 Season: 41-28.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season.
NFL POWER RANKINGS:
В© Provided by Sporting News aaron-rodgers-101520-getty-ftr.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 9.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX/NFL Network.
This is a tricky game for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 4-6 against the 49ers (including playoffs) and Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard and David Bakhtiari are battling injuries. San Francisco will be without Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle, among others. That should lead to an unpredictable finish.
Pick: Packers 27, 49ers 24.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Falcons are 0-4 S/U and ATS as a favorite this season, and they play a hot-and-cold Broncos team led by Drew Lock, who led a thrilling comeback against the Chargers in Week 8. Atlanta's defense has improved a touch with interim coach Raheem Morris. So why are we feeling a small upset?
Pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 25.
В© Provided by Sporting News russell-wilson-100720-getty-ftr Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Seattle is a slight road favorite in another show-case home game for the Bills. Russell Wilson is completing 73.9 percent of his passes on the road this season, and he will make enough plays to keep the Seahawks ahead in a fun early shootout.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Bills 28.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Bears are good play here knowing they are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season, but will Nick Foles be able to generate enough offense to keep up with the Titans? Tennesse averages 34.8 points per game at home and breaks a two-game losing skid.
Pick: Titans 28, Bears 23.
В© Provided by Sporting News Philip-Rivers-092020-Getty-FTR Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Indianapolis Colts.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Video: How will McCaffrey look in Panthers return? (NBC Sports)
Philip Rivers is heating up – and he's passed for three TDs in each of Indianapolis' last two games. Lamar Jackson's completion percentage has stayed under 60 percent the last three weeks, and the Colts match up well on defense. At least we think they do.
Pick: Colts 28, Ravens 27.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Teddy Bridgewater avoided a serious injury in a loss to the Falcons last week, and Christian McCaffrey might be able to return to the lineup. That will help against the Chiefs, but it won't be enough. Kansas City has won their last two games by an average of 26.5 points per game.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Panthers 21.
В© Provided by Sporting News Kirk-Cousins-102120-GETTY-FTR Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Dalvin Cook put on a show against the Packers, and the Vikings have won the last three meetings with Detroit. Kirk Cousins is 4-0 against Detroit since coming to Minnesota, and he averages 250 passing yards with nine total TDs and one interception in those games. Stay with the track record.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 24.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Giants won an ugly first meeting between these teams, but Daniel Jones will have to do more in the passing game to win on the road. Even in a short week, we think New York makes enough plays to win. Bad NFC East football breeds ugly games, and this won't be an exception.
Pick: Giants 20, Redskins 17.
В© Provided by Sporting News Deshaun-Watson-102820-GETTY-FTR Houston Texans (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Both teams had bye weeks to prepare for this battle of 1-6 teams. The Texans have won the last five meetings in this series, and the Jaguars have scored 14 points or less in those games. The spread still looks too high somehow.
Pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 23.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Chargers have become meme material for blowing second-half leads, and that has overshadowed the play of rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. If the Raiders truly are a playoff contender, then they win this game. Las Vegas is 3-1 S/U on the road.
Pick: Raiders 31, Chargers 28.
В© Provided by Sporting News Tua-Tagavailoa-110120-getty-ftr Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray meet for the first time since the Orange Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal, but this time it's a matchup to stay in the playoff race. Miami is 4-2 S/U and ATS as an underdog this season, and they have given up 17 points or less in their last three wins. Their unexpected success against the NFC West continues.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Cardinals 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
There isn't a line yet, which is a nod to how ugly this could be. These franchises have played head-to-head in three Supers Bowls. Dallas' season of misery continues against Pittsburgh, which matches its win total from last season with an eighth victory.
Pick: Steelers 31, Cowboys 13.
В© Provided by Sporting News Tom-Brady-100820-getty-ftr New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The two hottest teams in the NFC meet in a rematch from Week 1. Drew Brees didn't make the big mistakes in the first meeting, and it's on Tom Brady to even the season series. This Sunday Night Football thriller atones for last week's debacle between the Eagles and Cowboys.
Pick: Buccaneers 34, Saints 31.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at New York Jets.
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN.
The Patriots have lost four in a row, and they have failed to score more than 21 points in a single game in that losing stretch. The Jets, meanwhile, haven't scored more than 10 points in a single game in their last four losses. New England and New York quarterbacks have combined for seven TD passes and 18 interceptions this season.
Pick: Patriots 20, Jets 10.


Pete Prisco's NFL Week 9 picks: Patriots squeak out win over Jets, Ravens hold off Colts and more predictions.
Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 9, including why the Patriots will win a closer game than most expect.
I knew it was coming eventually, but the hurt from my first losing week still wasn't fun. Yes, the picks went rotten last week.
For the first time this season, my picks against the spread were on the negative side of the ledger. I went 5-9 ATS to drop my record to 64-53-1 for the year. My straight up mark was 9-5 to get to 80-37-1 for the year. I also had my first losing week on the Pick Six Podcast with my best bets, going 3-4. That makes my season mark 31-17-1.
Now that the dud week is out of my system, it's time to get back on track, which I plan to do.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
This rematch of the NFC title game last January has a different look to it for the 49ers in a big way. They are decimated by injuries, starting Nick Mullens at quarterback while being without George Kittle. They can still run the ball, which has been a problem for the Packers. But without Kittle and with a backup quarterback, it will be tougher to run it. The Packers will be thin at running back, but I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game will move the ball and find a way to win against a depleted team.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 21.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3)
This game actually matters in the division race. That's sick. The Giants are playing on a short week after losing to the Bucs Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye. The more rested team will be the one that plays better as the defensive front has a big day. Washington takes it.
Pick: Washington 21, Giants 17.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that's up over $7,600 on its top-rated picks.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks. The Titans have major issues on defense, while the Bears have major issues on offense. Something has to give, and I think it's the Bears offense that gets it going. Titans win it, but it's close.
Pick: Titans 31, Bears 30.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
The Vikings won at Green Bay last week by doing it the old-fashioned way: pounding the football. They will try and do that here with Dalvin Cook and should be able to run it. The concern is the Minnesota defense. But I think they showed some improvement last week that will carry over here. Vikings win another.
Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 23.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Panthers have lost three straight and now must travel to play one of the best teams in the league. The Chiefs will have an offensive explosion again here against the Carolina defense. Even with Christian McCaffrey likely back, it won't matter. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Panthers 21.
Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
This will be Jake Luton making his first start for the Jaguars. The rookie has a big arm, and he looked good in camp, according to team sources. But this is a big challenge. The Jaguars defense has been awful and Deshaun Watson should light them up. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts.
This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts have won two straight as Philip Rivers has righted his season. But this is a big challenge in the Ravens defense. The Baltimore offense has run it well, but it will be the passing that wins this game. Lamar Jackson gets it going.
Pick: Ravens 28, Colts 27.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills.
This is another good game this week. This is a long trip for Seattle to face a good Buffalo team. But the Buffalo defense has really struggled the past month. That is good news for Russell Wilson. He will light up the Buffalo secondary. Seattle wins a high-scoring game as Josh Allen also will play well.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Bills 28.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris and have been rejuvenated a bit. Denver looked good coming back against the Chargers with Drew Lock leading it. This has a chance to be high scoring, but I think Matt Ryan will get the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Broncos 24.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
The Raiders impressed last week on the road winning at Cleveland. The defense came up big. They face a tough challenge in hot rookie passer Justin Herbert. The Chargers find new ways to blow leads seemingly every week. But that won't happen here as Herbert has a big day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a mess, while the Steelers are the league's best team. They are playing a third straight road game, which is usually tough. But this is one of those games where you can throw that out the window. They are much better than the Cowboys right now, who will likely start Cooper Rush with Andy Dalton on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers stay unbeaten.
Pick: Steelers 34, Cowboys 20.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The Dolphins have the top-scoring defense in the league, while the Cardinals were clicking on offense before the bye. This is a long trip for the Dolphins, but they won at San Francisco earlier this year. Even so, the Cardinals will carry over their hot play from before the bye and find a way to win this one. Kyler Murray beats Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Dolphins 21.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Bucs are playing on a short week and didn't look great against the Giants. But the Saints are playing consecutive road games. New Orleans won the first meeting, but this is a much better Tampa Bay team. The defense will get all over Drew Brees. Tom Brady will beat him in this one.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17.
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets.
What a bad Monday night game this is for us. The Patriots have lost four straight, while the Jets haven't won yet. They won't win here either, but it will be close. The Patriots aren't a good team either. Take the points.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21.


NFL Week 9 game picks: Bucs top Saints; Ravens best Colts.
Around The NFL Editor.
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Gregg Rosenthal went 9-5 on his predictions for Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 75-43-1. How will he fare in Week 9? His picks are below.
SUNDAY, NOV. 8.
Washington Football Team 21, New York Giants 19.
While Daniel Jones was decomposing in prime time, the Team was chilling on a bye week. It's always tricky when teams play twice in such a short span, but the first meeting between the Giants and Washington, which came in Week 6, was instructive. Big Blue struggled to move the ball, relying on two Kyle Allen turnovers that set up 14 points. That could happen again, but the talent disparity here is real. The Giants are playing just hard enough to keep games close, but Washington has far more players (Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Chase Young, Montez Sweat and an underrated secondary) who can make plays without the help of some major schematic advantage.
Tennessee Titans 24, Chicago Bears 23.
This is a sneaky-great game. When the Titans have the ball, a dominant red-zone and third-down offense faces the league's preeminent red-zone and third-down defense. When the Bears have the ball, a Nick Foles-led group ranked near the bottom in red-zone and third-down offense faces a Titans defense that is historically terrible in getting off the field. Foles made more tough throws last week than he was given credit for and has faced a brutal stretch of the schedule that ends this week, which makes this more of a coin-flip game than Titans fans want to admit.
UPDATE: NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Thursday that Bears center Cody Whitehair tested positive for COVID-19.
Minnesota Vikings 27, Detroit Lions 24.
The Vikings and Lions are similar this season, as two teams stuck in the NFL's middle that could easily have better records. I give the Vikings the edge on Sunday largely because of who's available. Dalvin Cook is a tackle-breaking testament to a few running backs mattering, with coordinator Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking concepts taking off when he's in the lineup. Kenny Golladay, meanwhile, is Detroit's offensive Jenga piece. The Lions' erratic attack isn't explosive enough without Golladay on the field, and he's expected to miss this game with a hip injury, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Matthew Stafford was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday after having a high-risk close contact with a non-team person earlier this week, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. He could be eligible to play on Sunday if his tests come back negative in the days ahead and he remains asymptomatic. I was picking the Vikings to win either way, but the score projection could change, depending on Stafford's status.
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Carolina Panthers 21.
Pressure Patrick Mahomes or perish. The Panthers, who haven't had their bye, have forced only one punt in their last two games. They make other teams work for their points, but Brian Burns' breakout season doesn't provide enough juice up front to make up for the losses of Kawann Short and Yetur Gross-Matos from an already-thin defensive group. Mahomes has the look of a man ready to feast on a stretch of vulnerable opponents, making Christian McCaffrey's likely return from injury for this game of little concern for the defending champs.
Houston Texans 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 21.
I was convinced, based on Rapoport's reporting and Jaguars coach Doug Marrone's words, that rookie quarterback Jake Luton was going to start coming out of Jacksonville's bye week, even before the team knew of Gardner Minshew's injury. The Jaguars talked up Luton in training camp much like they talked up Minshew the year before. Facing the Texans' defense represents an ideal first matchup, but it's hard to imagine Luton keeping up in a shootout with Deshaun Watson. With the league's 32nd-ranked defense, shootouts and blowouts are the only types of Jaguars games.
Baltimore Ravens 24, Indianapolis Colts 20.
This game is a stress test that will tell us how different these Ravens truly are. Baltimore's defense is better than it was a year ago, but the sluggish passing game is impossible to ignore after another rough day for Lamar Jackson. Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is quietly carrying a Colts offense that ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt, yet dead last in yards per carry. I love Darius Leonard. I love Julian Blackmon. I love DeForest Buckner. But the Ravens' running game is coming off its best game of the year, and Baltimore still has more ways to win, with more firepower than the Colts, on both sides of the ball.
Seattle Seahawks 30, Buffalo Bills 24.
Jamal Adams, who's missed the last four games due to injury, and trade acquisition Carlos Dunlap could join a Seahawks defense coming off its best performance. This matchup sets up well for the upswing to continue. Like the other defenses that have slowed down the Bills lately, the Seahawks are happy to play coverage, keep the ball in front of them and wait for Josh Allen to make a mistake. Allen, who has turned the ball over as often as he's notched a TD in the last four weeks, has mixed in too many quick drives with his brilliant playmaking. All Russell Wilson needs at the moment is a few stops, and he can do the rest. Unless you're watching 2019 tape, the Bills' defense doesn't look like the group to stop him.
Denver Broncos 27, Atlanta Falcons 24.
Both of these teams have won two out of three games since resetting their season. Drew Lock looked absolutely lost for seven consecutive quarters before piloting a potential season-altering comeback over the Chargers. The Falcons have won decisively twice (and lost comically once) since Raheem Morris was named interim head coach, with Morris' ascension coinciding with Julio Jones' return to the field. This game means more for the Broncos. Their defense is well-coached and their offense has a ton of playmakers that can go the distance on any play. That's a recipe for a win, if Lock can avoid being his own worst enemy.
Las Vegas Raiders 30, Los Angeles Chargers 28.
The Chargers have the highest variance in football, which means they are the least consistent team from week to week. Their erratic play exists within games, as they often look like world-beaters before turning into a self-defeating mess. The Raiders are steady like their quarterback, pleasantly boring as they rack up long field-goal drives behind their mammoth offensive line. Derek Carr might lack the flash of Justin Herbert, and the Raiders don't quite measure up to their division rivals in overall talent, but there are mysterious, cosmic forces at play when the Chargers play fourth quarters. Don't mess with the cosmos.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Dallas Cowboys 10.
It doesn't matter whether it's Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush starting at quarterback for the Cowboys. Dallas was the worst team in the league with Andy Dalton at quarterback because its offensive line can't protect against four-man rushes and really can't protect against the blitz. The signs of life from Dallas' defense last week were heartening, but it's worth wondering if that effort will sustain when the Steelers' defense is scoring points and taking the ball away in bunches on Sunday afternoon. Free Tony Romo and Jim Nantz; no more Cowboys games!
Arizona Cardinals 27, Miami Dolphins 24.
The best way to prevent Dolphins coach Brian Flores from overwhelming your pass-protection schemes is to avoid obvious passing situations. One week after the Rams badly failed in this endeavor, the Cardinals will try to learn from Jared Goff's mistakes. Blitzing Kyler Murray is dangerous because he's so elusive, but the Dolphins' 32nd-ranked run defense is vulnerable if they don't go for broke. These are two fascinating teams that are dramatically improved from 2019 -- and the Dolphins have some magic to them. My heart says Miami, but my head has a hard time riding with Tua Tagovailoa until he proves he can move the offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, New Orleans Saints 24.
This score continues my theme of Week 9 underdogs falling short but keeping the game closer than expected. The analytics love the Bucs. I love the Bucs. There isn't an obvious weakness for Tampa Bay, although the team's big-name pass rush is quietly underwhelming. That could be a problem against a strong Saints offensive line, which protects Drew Brees well and blocks even better for Alvin Kamara in the run game and on screens. It's also hard to overstate how much better the Saints' offense should be with Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway all trending toward a return to the field.
Still, the best way to beat the Tampa defense is over the top. That does not favor Brees. And while Marcus Davenport has given the Saints' pass rush new life, the Bucs' offensive line figures to keep Tom Brady clean. This is not only the biggest game of Week 9, but one of the biggest in the NFC all season. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders, and the winner will have a significant edge in the battle for the NFC South.




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