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laying correct scores strategy - FabioIneks - 02-09-2021 Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy. Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy. Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match. They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals. Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article. When is the best time to lay the correct score? Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes. There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade. Cup games are good for this strategy. Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible. One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining. Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds. Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home. Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key. Is the leading team looking to counter? Are they wasting time using stalling tactics? Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity? Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions? Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy. Example. Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification. Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35. It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored. Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50. I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half . The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met. This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term. Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game. Resources. Looking to make money from the sports betting markets. Is The Lay 0-0 Correct Score Strategy Profitable? Looking for GOOD Football Trading Strategies? Would you like to cut to the chase and learn the BEST football trading strategies that will allow you to make a second or even primary income? Interested in becoming a member? And getting a FULL portfolio of 8 strategies? Can it work? Can you really make money simply laying the 0-0 on Betfair’s Correct Score market? We look into the ins and outs of a very popular newbie approach which is laying the 0-0 outcome on a football match. This means only 1 goal needs to be scored in order to win. This video covers: Quick Demo Of Winning a 0-0 Lay [£50 Profit in 8 minutes] Why It Can be a DANGEROUS method to use How Most Newbies Go HORRIBLY Wrong With It. Whether or not, this CAN be a profitable method? You will see that although we managed to win £50 for a quick 8 minutes of “work”, this is actually one of the pitfalls of this sort of method as it can trick you into thinking it is always this easy. Then when you see the amounts we have to risk in order to make the profit you might have even more second thoughts. Watch the full video to get all the details on this approach. Laying correct scores strategy. 1 or 2 Losers strategies. Strategies and Excel spreadsheets for trading the Betfair Correct Score market or First Goal Scorer market of football matches . 1 Loser Strategy , Using this strategy you can Lay several scores in the Correct Score market, or several players in the First Goal Scorer market, and win on every Lay except your FIRST Lay. If you were Laying the Correct Score Market :- The only way these Lays can lose is if you happen to pick the winning score line with your FIRST Lay. Lay as many score lines as you like. The more you Lay, the bigger your profit. Additionally, as with all other Laying strategies that involve more than one Lay, every Lay you make reduces your liabilities. In this case your only liability will be on your First Lay. As you make more Lays, that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other Lay increases. If the match ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever. You clean up, winning the total ЈЈЈ of all your Lays. Remember, your only losing Lay will be on the FIRST score line that you Lay. You will win on all the others. It is exactly the same if you Lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market. You could also use this spreadsheet to Lay a number of horses in a horse race, golfers in a golf tournament, darts players in a darts competition etc. 1 Loser Strategy , using the Correct Score Market as an example. In a horse race, Bookies may Lay a few runners against the field, but another strategy is to Lay several runners but make only one targeted runner a loser. With this 1 Loser strategy, we are doing the same thing, but in the Correct Score Market of a football match on Betfair. We are not Laying the whole field, but just a few of the runners (score lines). Using this 1 Loser strategy, we win on all score lines except one. If we stake correctly, we can reduce our liabilities on one targeted score line by laying other score lines. This is not the same as Laying a single score line. Using this 1 Loser Strategy :- We have only one score line against us, but with reduced liabilities. All the others are running for us. Any score lines that we don't Lay, are skinners for us - ALL our Lays are successful, and we clean up. Example . There are normally 17 score lines including "Any Other Score" that we can Lay. We could Lay 4 score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for us. We Lay our First score line, which could be any one of the 17. Then we Lay a 2nd score line, a 3rd, and a 4th. We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish. These 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Lays reduce our liabilities on our First Lay, just as any normal series of Lays would do, but if we stake correctly :- If the winner does NOT come from the 4 horses (or in this case we don't hit the winning score) that we have layed, we have 4 successful lays, and we clean up, with no payout. If the winner comes from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit. If our First score line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4. Another example. The shortest priced score line may be 1-0. You may choose to make that your first Lay, and Lay all other scores up to 2-2. Providing the game does not end with a score of 1-0, you will make a profit on every other Lay. I f the match ends with a score of 0-0, or any score up to 2-2 except 1-0, you are a winner. If the match ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever. You clean up, winning the total ЈЈЈ of all your Lays. You will only lose if the match ends 1-0, but your 1-0 liabilities will have been reduced by your Lays on the other scores up to 2-2. You may choose some other score for your First Lay such as 3-3, and Lay some other scores, such as 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2. If the match does not end 3-3, but ends with another score that you have Layed 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, you make a profit on your Lays. If the match ends in a score that you have not Layed, you clean up , winning the total ЈЈЈ of all your Lays. Your only payout would be on 3-3, but your 3-3 liabilities will have been reduced by your Lays on 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2. All you need to do to achieve this, is stake correctly. 2 Losers Strategy. This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose. Once again, we do not Lay the whole field, but a few score lines.. The procedure is exactly the same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose. Liabilities on score lines 1 and 2 will be reduced by the additional Lays on score lines 3 upwards. This strategy of targeting 2 score lines, has 2 advantages, but one additional drawback :- A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2. A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1. This strategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short odds. The downside is that we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1. If the winner does NOT come from the score lines that we have Layed, all our Lays are successful and we clean up, with no payout. If the winner comes from score lines 4, 5, 6, etc., we still make a profit. If one of the first 2 score lines wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on the other score lines, particularly score line 1 or score line 2. This is not the same as just Laying 2 score lines. We are reducing our liabilities on 2 targeted score lines by laying lesser amounts on additional score lines. Excel spreadsheets are a quick and reliable way of doing calculations. You can build a spreadsheet to cover the strategy described above, or purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only Ј10. 1 or 2 Losers spreadsheets. You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these spreadsheets. These 1 or 2 Losers spreadsheets calculate instantly the lay stakes required to Lay up to 20 selections to reduce the liability on either 1 or 2 target selections. You could of course use this spreadsheet for any event other than a football match. This Excel file contains 2 separate spreadsheets for your tenner. 1 loser spreadsheet Only the first selection will have a negative liability. Once you lay more than 2 selections , a profit will be made on selections 2 to 20. 2 losers spreadsheet Only the first 2 selections will have negative liabilities. Once you lay more than 3 selections , a profit will be made on selections 3 to 20. If none of the Layed selections win, you clean up with the total ЈЈЈ of all the Lay amounts staked - you have a "Skinner". The more selections you Lay :- The less your liabilities become on your target selections. The more profit you show on other Layed selections. The bigger the payout on a "Skinner" - a selection you haven't Layed. 1 or 2 Losers spreadsheets price = Ј10 Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment. Copyright © H. Hutchinson 2009 All rights reserved Copying text or any other kind of content from a web site is a criminal offence. Holy Grail: Lay 0-0 at Half Time. I have come across an interesting riddle which is worthwhile mentioning on Soccerwidow… This mystery was presented by a Dr Slicer approximately two years ago in the Betfair Community Forum and still causes headaches for many people! Dr Slicer describes that he found the ‘holy grail’ or a ‘no-lose strategy’ and since then he has not lost a single football bet which is suitable for his formula. The riddle is simple: Placing 2 bets before kick off: First bet: Laying 0-0 half time result Second bet is guaranteed to lose should the first bet win. If the first bet loses a third bet is placed during half time and an adjustment of the second bet may be needed. However, it is not revealed what bets 2 and 3 comprise. The whole strategy with a calculated staking plan guarantees a profit between 9 to 12% per match. One more little thing: The matches must have a clear advantage for the home team. Whoever finds the answer will have found the holy grail 🙂 Here are a few links to some of the forums where this mystery has been discussed with many suggestions and thoughts, but without solutions: Although in many forums it is said that this is a hoax and not possible… My opinion is that it is most certainly not a hoax. One must think ‘outside the box’ in order to find the identities of bets 2 and 3. HINT: Don’t limit your thinking to the correct score market only and it’s not only the 0-0 full time result which is guaranteed to lose should the first bet win. Reverse engineering is needed to solve this riddle! Laying against 0 - 3 or 3 - 0 in Correct Score (football) in favour of the underdog. Description. If you have a large enough bank or if you don’t mind placing small bets (which BetFair will certainly frown upon if you abuse the system for a long time), then this strategy is for you. It’s plain and simple: you lay against the score 0 – 3 or 3 – 0 in favour of the underdog at the beginning of a football match. For example, in a match Lille v Dijon, determine that Dijon is the underdog (and Lille is the favourite) and lay on 0 – 3 in Correct Score. The prices will be formidably high (up to 1000), but so will be your chances to win that bet. You will see the results of my testing below. Profile name: lay-0-3-correct-score. How to run this trigger package: 1. Download and run the above installation file. 2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored). 3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list: Here are the constants you can adjust: liab_size. Size of liability (% of the available funds) min_team_dif. Minimum difference between the prices of the teams (Match Odds) min_vlm. Minimum market volume (Match Odds) As you can see from the two last constants, you need to load both Match Odds and Correct Score markets to be able to run this strategy. The difference between the two teams must be big enough to decrease the chances of the underdog to score 3 goals against the favourite team. Triggers In Action. Day 1, March 03, 2019. I started testing the triggers with the following settings: bet_size. min_team_dif. min_vlm. That’s right, on my first day I used the size of bet rather than the size of liability. My first loss happened that day, and I was going to find out how often these losses will take place the next several days to see if this strategy is viable at all. Total P/L: -35.13 ROI: -264.14% Wins: 35, losses: 1. Day 2, March 04, 2019. I noticed that the method I chose for setting the size of my bet did not take into account the price at which the triggers were laying. This was potentially very dangerous, especially given the fact that some bets could be placed at a price of 1000.0 – this could leave me bankrupt in no time. So for the next day (and for the rest of my testing), I defined the liability of my bets as a percentage of the available funds. liab_size. Total P/L: 7.32 ROI: 95.06% Wins: 23, losses: 0. Day 3, March 05, 2019. I kept the same settings and triggers for the rest of this testing period, as there was little I wanted to change or add to this strategy. My primary goal was to evaluate the long-term viability of this plan . Total P/L: 12.22 ROI: 95.02% Wins: 28, losses: 0. Day 4, March 06, 2019. Another day without losses. Total P/L: 8.96 ROI: 95.02% Wins: 20, losses: 0. Day 5, March 07, 2019. Total P/L: 8.78 ROI: 95.12% Wins: 20, losses: 0. Day 6, March 08, 2019. Total P/L: -30.97 ROI: -108.58% Wins: 49, losses: 1. Day 7, March 09, 2019. Total P/L: 27.84 ROI: 94.98% Wins: 80, losses: 0. OK, strictly speaking, if I stopped at this point, after the usual 7 days of testing, I would have ended up with a total loss of -£0.97, i.e. I wouldn't have earned or lost any significant amount of money. This is to be expected as I did not apply any loss recovery. I did not turn the VPS off because I was in the middle of fixing the problem with the new SSL protocol introduced by BetFair, so I kind of did not have time for anything else. Therefore, you may choose to ignore the results of the next two days. Day 8, March 10, 2019. Total P/L: 28.70 ROI: 95.00% Wins: 76, losses: 0. Day 9, March 11, 2019. Total P/L: 8.12 ROI: 95.42% Wins: 22, losses: 0. My bank balance and statistics: Total strike rate: 99.44% As you can see, even such microscopic bets can bring a long-term profit, if you are not afraid of high liabilities. Mind you, I did not even pursue any loss recovery, although I did have three losses over the period of 9 days. My bank has never fallen below 95% of its starting amount. You have enough space for manoeuvre (use the constants) to insure yourself against losing all your bank in one go, so why not give it a try? Your balance graph will most probably have a sawtooth pattern, but each next sawtooth may peak higher and higher. If you liked this trigger review, sign up for our newsletter to be the first to learn about new reviews! Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now! How and where I test the triggers? I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy. I use Test Mode only . You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. 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