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week 12 football picks - FabioIneks - 02-08-2021

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п»їNFL picks, predictions for Week 12: Packers bounce back vs. Bears; Buccaneers beat Chiefs in thriller.
The playoff race in the NFL is heating up, and Week 12 is about teams taking care of business if they want to keep pace.
The Sunday schedule features just one matchup between teams with winning records. That's the 4:25 p.m. ET game between Kansas City and Tampa Bay – another showcase game for quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. The rest of the schedule features matchups in which several teams are looking to play spoiler.
The next-best matchup on the schedule is the timeless rivalry between NFC North rivals Green Bay and Chicago. The Packers can extend their lead in the division to three games with a victory.
Here is a look at our track record in picking games straight-up in 2020:
Last Week: 6-8 Season: 62-47.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for the rest of Week 12:
NFL picks, predictions for Week 12.
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Detroit Lions.
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Lions have lost their last three Thanksgiving games, and they are coming off a listless performance in a 20-0 shutout against the Panthers. Houston has won two of its last three, and Deshaun Watson hasn’t thrown an interception in five games.
Pick: Texans 28, Lions 23.
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.
Andy Dalton was knocked out the last time the Cowboys played the Redskins, and this game might have NFC East title implications. Dallas plays more inspired, however, and Dalton throws the game-winning TD to CeeDee Lamb late in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Washington 20.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Ravens have lost three of their last four games, and they have been limited to 24 points or less in the last four games. Baltimore is depleted with 20 players on the COVID reserve list and will play with a sense of desperation, but they must get to Ben Roethlisberger – who has averaged 302 passing yards per game the last three weeks.
Pick: Steelers 29, Ravens 26.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Falcons are just 1-4 at home, and Julio Jones' hamstring injury will be something to monitor throughout the week. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 4-1 on the road – and that includes a cross-country-flight-victory against Carolina in Week 1. Expect a similar game.
Pick: Raiders 31, Falcons 26.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Justin Herbert continues to impress as a rookie, and he has two 300-yard games in the last three weeks. The Chargers have yet to win a road game, and the Bills had a bye week to stew about the Hail Mary loss to the Cardinals. The weather won't be a factor, but Josh Allen will take advantage of a weak Chargers' defense.
Pick: Bills 28, Chargers 21.
New York Giants (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Bengals lost Joe Burrow for the season, and the Giants should be able to get after Ryan Finley – who took four sacks against Washington last week. Daniel Jones leads a low-risk passing attack, and New York wins its third consecutive game. It will be close.
Pick: Giants 20, Bengals 16.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Colts and Titans meet in a rematch, and both teams are coming off emotional overtime victories. It's all about adjustments in the AFC South rematch, and Ryan Tannehill has to make a few more plays in the passing game. The Titans get payback with a late TD run from Derrick Henry.
Pick: Titans 27, Colts 24.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The opportunity for a Teddy Bridgewater revenge game is appealing, but if he can't play P.J. Walker proved that that offense can still function. Kirk Cousins has more support, and he has thrown just one interception in his last four games. Dalvin Cook will keep the running game going.
Pick: Vikings 27, Panthers 21.
Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Tua Tagovailoa took his first loss as a starter against Denver, and he took six sacks. The Jets – the first team to be eliminated from the postseason – do not have the same pass-rushing ability. Tagovailoa makes the right adjustments, and the Dolphins get back on track in the AFC playoff hunt.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 22.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New England Patriots.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Patriots are all but out of the playoff race, and the Cardinals are trying to get back on track after a loss to the Seahawks. Arizona's defense has allowed 28 points or more the last four weeks. Will Bill Belichick come up with some defensive wrinkles that test Kyler Murray's patience? Or will Murray do what Deshaun Watson just did to New England? Here is this week's out-of-the-box upset pick.
Pick: Patriots 28, Cardinals 26.
Cleveland Browns (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS.
The Browns' defense stepped up with Myles Garrett, and Nick Chubb continues to shine. Cleveland is 4-0 when Chubb rushes for 100 yards or more this season, and that streak continues. This also is a chance for Baker Mayfield to get back on track in nicer weather.
Pick: Browns 28, Jaguars 14.
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Denver Broncos.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX.
Taysom Hill won his first start against the Falcons, but this is an interesting road test knowing the Broncos have won their last two home games. The Saints have the league's best run defense, so Drew Lock will have to force the issue more. That will lead to turnovers, and New Orleans will take advantage.
Pick: Saints 28, Broncos 20.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX.
The Rams had a bye week to prepare for the rematch with the 49ers. San Francisco won the first matchup with three TDs from Jimmy Garoppolo, but the 49ers have been riddled with injuries since. Jared Goff leads the Rams to victory with another efficient performance.
Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 23.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
Tom Brady is in yet another big game, and this is the fourth head-to-head meeting against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have won five straight, but the defense has allowed 31 points in each of the last two games. Tampa Bay's defense comes up huge in the second half, and Brady delivers a vintage game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Rematch in the Super Bowl?
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 30.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
Division rivals meet, and the Packers can bounce back after an overtime loss at Indianapolis. The Bears' offensive struggles are well-documented, and Green Bay will bounce back with another big game from Aaron Rodgers. The last five meetings between these teams have been decided by eight points or less.
Pick: Packers 26, Bears 19.
Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Philadelphia Eagles.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Eagles are clinging to a half-game lead in a bad NFC East, and the Seahawks are not the team they want to be facing. Russell Wilson broke out of his funk against the Cardinals, and Seattle will take advantage of Philadelphia's run defense.


NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 12: Chiefs edge Bucs; Eagles stun Seahawks; Raiders rebound.
Our Week 11 picks and predictions straight up and against the spread can be summed up in one word: Bru-tal. Injury effects and wild last-minute finishes all didn't go in the right way, leading to the toughest results of the season.
There's only one way to overcome what just happened — focus on doing better with the next set of pigskin prognostications. It's time to remain fearless with Sporting News' weekly pro football forecast, diving headfirst into every upcoming matchup.
Week 12 brings up a lot of close lines, starting with two games on Thanksgiving Thursday. Here's to your health and here's to being more feast than famine with the picks. This week, we get a full heaping of 16 games with no teams on bye:
NFL picks against the spread for Week 12.
Game of the Week: Chiefs (-3, 53 o/u) at Buccaneers.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Chiefs are coming off a thrilling, emotional last-minute comeback win over the Raiders. The Buccaneers are coming off a short week with a physical Monday night game against the Rams. This game simply comes down to whether you like Patrick Mahomes and his weapons to outperform Tom Brady and his. At this point, counting against Mahomes is a mistake. He'll be under less pressure than Brady and will come through with another clutch fourth-quarter drive.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-27 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Bears at Packers (-8, 45 o/u)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Packers know they will have red-hot Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, trying to make up for the Colts loss by finishing better. The Bears don't know if they will have Nick Foles, MItchell Trubisky or Tyler Bray at quarterback. Coming off a bye helps for a strong Chicago defense, but the offense will cost the distant second-place team in the NFC North another prime-time division game.
Pick: Packers win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Bills (-5.5, 54 o/u) over Chargers.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Bills are coming off a bye and should have their offense revved up around Josh Allen to attack a Chargers' secondary that's really struggling. Justin Herbert will duel him well, but he's also going into a hostile environment with some weather concerns on a cross-country trip against a Buffalo defense that can dial up some good pressure.
Pick: Bills win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Eagles over Seahawks (-5.5, 51 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Eagles desperately need this game to hold off the pack of even weaker NFC East teams behind them. They came through with a key win over the 49ers earlier and get that result here at home in prime time. The Seahawks are much more vulnerable on the road defensively. Wentz uses all his weapons and running style to outduel Russell Wilson with some help from his defense, too.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24.
Dolphins (-7, 44.5 o/u) at Jets.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Dolphins need to shake off that bad loss against the Broncos and resettle at quarterback with Tua Tagovailoa. The good news is they did pitch a shutout against the Jets the first time. The bad news is New York seems to playing with a little more life to keep from going winless. Miami still wins on the strength of the defense, but it's another grind offensively to edge a team led by former coach Adam Gase.
Pick: Dolphins win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Cardinals (-2.5, 49.5 o/u) at Patriots.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Cardinals profile very similarly to the Texans, who just ripped the Patriots with a running QB and big pass plays all over the field. Kyler Murray is hard to stop and the Patriots' front seven is not equipped to do so with limited speed. They also will have trouble contaning DeAndre Hopkins downfield. The Cardinals' defense has a lot of holes, but they pick spots to slow down and stop Cam Newton.
Pick: Cardinals win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Panthers at Vikings (-4.5, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Vikings' defense put them in a tough spot again in the loss to the Cowboys. They need to get ahead of the game script and blast Dalvin Cook to a big lead. The Panthers' run defense is terrible, so you can bet Cook will be fed all day to compensate for the Dallas experience. Teddy Bridgewater, if he returns from his knee injury as expected, has a nice chance for a good "revenge" game, but Cook's constant chunk running will put this game out of reach in the end.
Pick: Vikings win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Titans at Colts (-3.5, 50.5 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Titans' offense woke up with a monster day from Derrick Henry to come back and clip the Ravens. The Colts' mighty defense is a different story, coming off the confidence of a Week 10 beatdown in Nashville. The Titans' defense still isn't very good and slowing down in many aspects, while Philip Rivers is suddenly red-hot. He delivers again as Ryan Tannehill goes back to slumping.
Pick: Colts win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Browns (-6.5, 48.5 o/u) at Jaguars.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Browns won't mess around in this game where weather won't be a factor, unlike their past three home games. Look for them to trust in a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the running and short passing games, with a few calculated high-percentage big-play passes from Baker Mayfield. The Browns' defense rallied around Myles Garrett's absence last week and does it again this week, facing Mike Glennon.
Pick: Browns win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Giants (-5.5, 42.5 o/u) at Bengals.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Giants get a massive break after the bye as Daniel Jones has a much better chance of outdueling Brandon Allen on the road than Joe Burrow. The Giants' defense is well rested and will go hard after Allen, forcing sacks and mistakes. The Bengals' defense is ill-equipped to stop any of Jones' versatile weapons.
Pick: Giants win 23-17 and cover the spread.
Raiders (-3, 55 o/u) at Falcons.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Raiders will shake off that Mahomes magic loss of Week 11 in style with a strong road trip to the NFC South. Derek Carr is playing too well to be contained by the Falcons awful pass coverage with no rush behind it, taking advantage when they blitz. Matt Ryan can't seem to keep his key receivers healthy and now his offensive line and running game are crumbling at the wrong time for an improving, youthful defense.
Pick: Raiders win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Ravens at Steelers (-3, 45)
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Ravens are going into this road game reeling from the devastating loss to the Titans and have new COVID-19 concerns (Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins). Lamar Jackson is coming off a rough home game and the Steelers' defense won't make things any easier on the road in this rematch. Pittsburgh found its balance and explosiveness last week while Baltimore's once nasty defense keeps wilting everywhere.
Pick: Steelers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
49ers at Rams (-6.5, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox.
The 49ers will still have Nick Mullens starting at quarterback but they should be healthier in their skill support at running back and wide receiver. Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh would have game-planned well during the bye for a team they were able to beat when healthy in Week 5. With the 49ers rested and the Rams tired from Monday night, look for a tighter rematch than expected at SoFi Stadium.
Pick: Rams win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Saints at Broncos (-5.5, 44 o/u)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox.
Taysom Hill shined in his home debut as a starting quarterback, but now goes to a hostile road environment in the elements, back in Mountain West country. The Broncos woke up defensively with a good pass rush and more respectable run defense. They tend to play better at home while the Saints, Drew Brees or not, aren't the best west- and outdoor-traveling team. They still survive with the better running game and the superior run defense.
Pick: Saints win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Game of the Midweek I: Texans (-2.5, -51.5) at Lions.
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Texans have Deshaun Watson cooking with gas with all of his wide receivers and is also feeling it as a runner. They have great confidence offensively after having their way with the Patriots. They draw a weaker defense this week and their run defense will get another break, assuming D'Andre Swift misses another game with a concussion. Houston has been more motivated without Bill O'Brien while Detroit is now going through the motions with Matt Patricia.
Pick: Texans win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Result: Texans won 41-25.
Game of the Midweek II: Washington Football Team at Cowboys (-2.5, 46.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox.
Andy Dalton finally played well filling in for Dak Prescott, a far cry from his first effort against Washington. The Cowboys also got their running game going with Ezekiel Elliott to help and also played more inspired defense against the Vikings. Dalton has more weapons than Alex Smith and Dallas evens the season series at home to resurrect its NFC East chances.
Pick: Cowboys win 24-20 and cover the spread.


NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 12, 2020: Proven model loving Giants, Colts.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 12 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
The Week 12 NFL schedule features eight games in the early window on Sunday, three in the late window and primetime games on Sunday night, Monday night, and Tuesday night. The defending champion Chiefs are 9-1 and will visit the Buccaneers (7-4) in a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites, with the over-under at 56 in the Week 12 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
On Sunday Night Football, the oldest rivalry in the NFL will be renewed when the Packers (7-3) host the Bears (5-5). Green Bay is a 9.5-point home favorite in the Week 12 NFL spreads for the teams' 201st all-time meeting. All of the Week 12 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 12 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,800 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's a sizzling 19-10 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning almost $800. The model enters Week 12 on an incredible 115-75 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 12 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 12.
One of the top Week 12 NFL picks the model recommends: The Giants (-6) cover on the road against the Bengals. Cincinnati is just 2-7-1 on the season but there was reason for optimism because of the play of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. However, Burrow suffered a torn ACL that ended his season and the Bengals will now turn to Brandon Allen as their starter in Week 12.
The Giants have won two games in a row and should be refreshed coming off a bye week. After failing to produce 350 yards of total offense in their first seven games, the Giants have crossed that threshold in their last three contests.
SportsLine's model predicts that the Giants will put up well over 350 yards of total offense once again. That's a big reason why New York covers in nearly 60 percent of simulations, while the over (44) has plenty of value.
Another one of the top Week 12 NFL predictions from the model: The Colts (-3) cover against the Titans in a key AFC South clash. Both teams boast a 7-3 record, four games clear of the third-place Texans. And with the division looking like a two-team race, Indianapolis picked up the crucial tiebreaker by knocking off the Titans in Week 11.
The Titans picked up a gutsy overtime win at Baltimore this past week, but haven't been strong overall on the road this year, going just 1-3 against the spread. The simulations show Indianapolis holding Titans running back Derrick Henry under 100 yards on the ground as the Colts cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. The under (51.5) also has plenty of value since that hits almost 60 percent of the time.
How to make Week 12 NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 12 NFL schedule and identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard in a shocking upset. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks.




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