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fantasy football picks for 08 - FabioIneks - 02-07-2021 Fantasy Football Rankings, Week 16, 2020: Model that beat experts says start David Johnson, sit Tyler Lockett. SportsLine's advanced computer model reveals Fantasy football start-sit advice for Week 16. Championships are on the line in many leagues as the Week 16 NFL schedule unfolds. That means finding a reliable set of Week 16 Fantasy football rankings could be the difference between winning it all or going home with nothing. NFL injury news also plays a role this time of year. The Falcons, for example, have ruled out receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) for their Sunday matchup with the Chiefs, while Washington receiver Terry McLaurin (ankle) is also likely to watch from the sidelines. Which players on your bench or in the free-agent pool like Mecole Hardman or Nyheim Hines can you trust this week to step in as Fantasy football picks? Before you lock in your Fantasy football lineups, be sure to check out the Week 16 Fantasy football rankings from the proven computer model at SportsLine. When it comes to ranking players, their model beat human experts in Fantasy football last season when there were big differences in ranking. Over the course of a season, that could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed. Last week, the model was extremely high on Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley, saying he'd finish as a top-five player at his position. The result: Ridley recorded 10 receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown. Anybody who had him in their lineup was well on their way to a huge week. Now, the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has revealed its Fantasy football rankings for Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season. Head to SportsLine now to see them. Top Fantasy football picks for Week 16. One player the model is extremely high on this week: Texans running back David Johnson. With fellow running back Duke Johnson sidelined with a neck injury, David Johnson exploded a week ago, reeling in all 11 of his targets for 106 receiving yards and a touchdown. Now, Johnson is poised to be the lone back again against a Bengals defense that has allowed productive days on the ground to running backs like Wayne Gallman (94-1), Derrick Henry (112-1), Benny Snell (84-1), and Nick Chubb (124-2). The model lists Johnson as a top-10 player in its Week 16 Fantasy football running back rankings, ahead of stars like Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, and Miles Sanders. And a massive shocker: Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett, who's hauled in 85 receptions for 920 yards and eight touchdowns this season, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 30 at his position. Lockett scored seven touchdowns over the first six games, but he's seen his productivity drop dramatically since then. In fact, Lockett has produced just one score over his last eight contests and hasn't eclipsed 70 receiving yards during that stretch. Last week against Washington, Lockett caught four of seven targets for just 34 yards. The sixth-year wideout hasn't received more than seven targets in three of his last four games and averaged less than 8.5 yards per reception in three of his last five outings. In addition, Lockett and the Seahawks square off against one of the NFL's toughest defenses this week. The Rams feature the NFL's top-ranked total defense, giving up just 286.1 yards per game. Los Angeles is also giving up just 192.0 passing yards per game, which also ranks first in the league. With one of the toughest Fantasy football matchups, Lockett is a player to consider putting on the bench in Week 16. How to set your Week 16 Fantasy football rankings. The model is also calling for a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 10 of its Fantasy football rankings. This pick could be the difference between winning big and going home with nothing. You can see who it is here. So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 16 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season. Wild Card Saturday DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS lineup advice for daily fantasy football playoff tournaments. The NFL now features a triple-header on the Saturday of wild-card weekend, starting with Colts-Bills and ending with Buccaneers-Washington (with Rams-Seahawks in between). Those six teams have plenty of solid DFS options, but with several top defenses in action, it's not easy building a tournament-winning DraftKings lineup. Our picks target several sleepers from the Colts, who we're hoping are underowned, as well as a couple of high-priced stars who we're hoping step up in the playoffs. Pivoting from likely chalk picks, such as Josh Allen, give us the differential that, while risky, could provide an edge. When you're playing small-slate tournaments, you have to take some chances, and we certainly do that with this lineup. Wild Card Saturday DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS tournament playoff lineup. QB Philip Rivers, Colts @ Bills ($5,400). You know the Bills are going to score points, so Indianapolis will likely have to air it out to keep up with them. Rivers has shown he can still do that effectively, averaging 260.6 yards per game with 24 total TDs this year. That includes seven multi-TD games and three three-TD games. Using Rivers, the fifth priciest QB, gives us more salary to play with for our other roster spots while not sacrificing a solid floor and relatively high ceiling against a Buffalo defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts @ Bills ($7,900). Taylor has taken advantage of favorable matchups down the stretch, averaging 19.8 carries and 123.5 yards over his final six games. He'll get the ball early against Buffalo's mediocre run defense, but he's shown he can also be an effective receiver, posting multiple catches in all but four games and having at least four catches on four occasions. It's an unconventional stack to pair him with Rivers (and Nyheim Hines), but it's also the kind of unique play that could pay off in a matchup that could be high scoring. RB Nyheim Hines, Colts @ Bills ($4,700). Hines has averaged 66.9 total yards and 4.4 receptions in the second half of the season. That's come with just three scores, but keep in mind he has three multi-TD outings on the season. Maybe we're limiting our upside a bit by playing both Colts backs, but with tough RB matchups in across the board on Saturday, it's not as crazy as it might look, especially when you factor in how much Rivers throws to his backs. Also, a lineup construction like this is sure to give us differentiation, so if both Hines and Taylor can find the end zone, they could really pay off in DraftKings full-point PPR scoring. WR Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. Colts ($7,700). We're hoping some steer clear of Diggs because of the "Q" tag he's carried all week, but we'd be very surprised if his oblique injury keeps him out on Saturday. Instead, we'll bank on the guaranteed production he's provided all year. It doesn't hurt that Indy's pass defense has struggled down the stretch, allowing an average of 309.1 yards over its final seven games. SATURDAY WILD CARD DFS: FanDuel. WR Antonio Brown, Buccaneers @ Washington ($6,100). Brown was force fed the ball last week, in part because Mike Evans (knee) got hurt early and also because he was trying to hit an incentive in his contract. Either way, there's a good chance he'll see plenty of targets again this week with Evans either out or limited. Washington has a tough pass defense, but Brown can beat anyone. He's scored in three straight games and will once again be a favorite target of Tom Brady. WR Cam Sims, Washington vs. Buccaneers ($3,900). We're going to need at least one value WR to hit it big, and we're counting on Sims to be that guy. He's seen 6.6 targets over Washington's final five games despite playing with three different QBs. Obviously, the quarterback situation is a worry, but Washington will undoubtedly be forced to throw more in the second half of this contest, and the 6-5 Sims will get chances downfield and in the red zone. He plays virtually every snap, so we'll take our chances in a favorable matchup. TE Jack Doyle, Colts @ Bills ($2,900). Rivers spreads the ball around to his receivers, so it's tough to pick one to pair with him. That's why we're hoping Doyle can cash in around the goal line. It's a risky pick, as it's pretty much touchdown-or-bust, but it's a great matchup. Fading Rob Gronkowski and Logan Thomas is also risky, but we'll be in decent shape if neither score, even if Doyle manages just a couple catches. FLEX Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Rams ($6,900). In two games against the Rams this year, Lockett posted eight catches for 110 yards -- not great, but better than teammate DK Metcalf (8-87). Lockett will still plenty of targets, and his big-play ability always makes him a threat. You have to take some chances on a three-game slate, and with many opting to avoid the Seahawks passing game in a tough matchup, we'll embrace the talent and hope for a big payoff. D/ST Seattle Seahawks vs. Rams ($2,700). We'll take a cheap defense against either John Wolford or a banged-up Jared Goff (thumb) any day, especially one playing as well as the Seahawks have down the stretch (16 offensive points allowed per game over its past eight contests, at least three sacks in seven of past eight games). DFS lineup advice and picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend Sunday slate. My Draft Kings lineups for Wild Card Weekend. Share this story. Share this on Facebook Share this on Twitter. Share All sharing options for: DFS lineup advice and picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend Sunday slate. Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images. I’m back again with my DFS lineup for Sunday’s NFL Wild Card slate. Its a tougher selection than Saturday, with some really heavy fantasy hitters to consider, but I’ve tried to balance my team and my selections are in. My quarterback/receiver stack comes from the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger and Diontae Johnson. The Steelers run game has been so poor this year, we’re going to see the Steelers throw the ball a ton and Johnson has been the number one receiver for the Steelers in 2020. I tried to get both Derrick Henry and Alvin Karama in my lineup but to balance the team I went with Henry and J.K. Dobbins who has finished the season strongly and matches up well against the Titans defense. Emmanuel Sanders and Miles Boykin make up a risky receiving corps but I’ve doubled down on tight ends with Mark Andrews and Jared Cook, with Cook being the best available player to sit in the flex as he offers a red zone threat. Finally I’m backing the Steelers to come up big against the Browns offense after resting some of their playmakers in their Week 17 tilt. DFS Fantasy Football: Favorite Pro Plays - Wild Card Weekend. DFS - Daily Fantasy Football player picks and tips. Special Huddle Member Discount: If you would like to give our membership at Win Daily a try, take advantage of a FREE 2 week promotion where you will gain an all access gold pass to our DFS & SportsBetting package. Use promo code “thehuddle” at checkout for 2 weeks FREE for both our DFS & SportsBetting Packages. Sign up now. These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate. QUARTERBACKS. JOSH ALLEN, BUF. $7,500 DRAFTKINGS, $9,300 FANDUEL. I could make a case for Josh Allen to be the MVP. The steps he took this year officially landed him in the elite category for me. He has been a fantasy darling for season long and DFS and carried me to a championship in one of my leagues. Averaging 27.3 DraftKings points per game establishes him as one of the safest plays on the slate. The Bills really don’t have a running game and it all relies on Allen, which is great for fantasy purposes. The matchup is one of the best on the board as well with the Colts ranking 26th against defending Quarterbacks. Lock him into cash and tournaments and hopefully the Bills win this week so we can play him again next week. LAMAR JACKSON, BAL. $7,800 DRAFTKINGS, $9,000 FANDUEL. Let Lamar cook! Russell Wilson has officially stopped his chef status and its time for Lamar to shine. It looks like the 2019 Lamar is back. In 4 of his last 5 games he ran for over 80 yards, which provides such a nice floor for fantasy. This Tennessee defense really struggles all across the field and is coming off a shootout where Deshaun Watson just torched them. We can expect the same here from Lamar in what should be one of the higher scoring games of the slate. Lamar’s rushing floor combined with a weak defense on the other side of the ball should provide safety for cash games and upside for tournaments. RUNNING BACKS. ALVIN KAMARA, NO. $8,500 DRAFTKINGS, $9,000 FANDUEL. It will be very scary to fade Derrick Henry and I will have to watch that game with one eye open. I will not fade Henry in all lineups and will have some exposure to him, but I am currently leaning on a pivot to Kamara in my main lineup on DraftKings if I can’t find a way to play both. We will need some savings and especially on DraftKings the full point PPR opens a door where I can see Kamara outscoring Henry. Playing Henry on FanDuel and Kamara on DraftKings is also a great option to hedge your plays. The matchup may not look so great on paper but I still like the upside with Kamara being so heavily involved in the offense with Michael Thomas out. CAM AKERS, LAR. $5,100 DRAFTKINGS, $6,100 FANDUEL. We need to save money somewhere and Akers seems like the safest spot to land at the running back position. The play on Akers is slightly dependent on whether or not Goff plays in this one. If Goff plays I feel more comfortable about the Rams moving the ball. It looks like Kupp will be back and the offense may be at full strength. If that holds true when the ball is kicked off Akers should be a solid value with some touchdown equity at a very fair price. We will need to take some chances in order to land the elite plays in our lineup and I believe Akers is that guy in Wild Card Weekend. WIDE RECEIVERS. STEFON DIGGS, BUF. $7,700 DRAFTKINGS, $8,700 FANDUEL. What more can we say about Stefon Diggs? He was criticized prior to the season similarly to Josh Allen, and all he did was come out and put up one of the best wide receiver seasons and hushed all the haters. The upside is massive, the targets are consistent, and the fantasy production follows almost every week. All we need is for Philip Rivers and the Colts to be able to hang in this game long enough in order to get four quarters of Diggs. The Colts rank 21st at defending wide receivers so this should be another 100 yard day for Diggs. Feel confident playing him in both cash games and tournaments. ALLEN ROBINSON, CHI. $6,600 DRAFTKINGS, $7,200 FANDUEL. I will try my best to get at least two stud receivers in my lineups this week and Robinson will be the second. I want target monsters with a safe floor in the playoffs, along with the proper upside. Robinson caught 6 of 7 passes for 87 yards and one touchdown in a matchup against the Saints in Week 8. A solid rapport with Trubisky can bolster that stat line and the fact that this game is in a dome gives me extra confidence that the game conditions will help provide safety as well. I can see the Bears covering the spread, winning this game outright, and I believe Robinson will be a major factor in making that happen. TIGHT ENDS. MARK ANDREWS, BAL. $5,200 DRAFTKINGS, $7,000 FANDUEL. If you have the salary, pay up for tight end and lock in Andrews as he should be the safest on the slate with an elite matchup. He torched the Titans in Week 11 for 5 receptions, 96 yards and 1 touchdown. This game has a real opportunity of shooting out and Andrews should be able to take advantage of it. Tennessee ranks 17th against defending tight ends and are currently allowing 287 passing yards per game. If you’re playing Lamar make sure you pair him with Andrews this weekend. LOGAN THOMAS, WAS. $4,900 DRAFTKINGS, $6,400 FANDUEL. Logan has put up numbers almost every single week within a below average passing offense. Quarterback play has been average at best and that has not stopped Thomas. Thomas has put up double-digit points in the past 6 weeks and that should continue against Tampa Bay. Tampa ranks 15th against defending tight ends and are allowing 269 passing yards per game. Game script should be in Logan’s favor as Washington should be trailing and passing most of the second half. Thomas is one of the safest tight ends on the board and I will try to lock him into 50% of my lineups this weekend. DEFENSES. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS. $3,400 DRAFTKINGS, $4,300 FANDUEL. The Washington Football team is struggling on offense. When you can’t score at will against the Eagles you will struggle heavily versus Tampa. As much as I respect the comeback of Alex Smith, he is still hobbling out there and I think Tampa brings the pressure and sacks him at least 4 times on the day. The Bucs are the play this weekend if you can afford paying up. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS. $2,700 DRAFTKINGS, $3,600 FANDUEL. This Seahawks team has transformed from the start to the end of the season. This defense was terrible and league worst while this offense was elite and putting up points by the dozen. A tail of two seasons and with the addition of Dunlap and a healthy Adams this defense has changed. If Goff is out this week I slide them ahead of the Buccaneers. If Goff plays I still like this defense as I don’t believe in Goff regardless. Wild Card Sunday FanDuel Picks: NFL DFS lineup advice for daily fantasy football playoff tournaments. DFS players are getting a late Christmas gift from the NFL in the form of three games instead of the usual two on Saturday and Sunday of wild-card weekend. Sunday's slate of Ravens-Titans, Bears-Saints, and Browns-Steelers offers some interesting options for playoff FanDuel tournaments, and our lineup picks are a bit contrarian from what you might expect. We start by playing it safe with a high-priced backfield, but from there we opt for big-play WRs, two TEs, and a D/ST with a tough matchup. This squad certainly isn't for everyone, but weird things happen on small slates, so it never hurts to have one lineup that's focused on differentiation. Wild Card Sunday FanDuel Picks: NFL DFS tournament playoff lineup. QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ Titans ($9,300). We all know what Jackson brings to the table when he's at the top of his game, so paying top dollar for him isn't a big concern. He averaged 161.8 passing yards, 86 rushing yards, and three total TDs per game over Baltimore's final five contests. With the best statistical matchup on the board, Jackson is worth his high price. RB Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. Bears ($9,000). If you're doing multiple playoff lineups this week, you need Kamara in one of them. Yes, the matchup isn't great on paper, but when has that slowed Kamara down this year? Against the Bears in Week 8, he had 67 rushing yards and nine catches for 96 receiving yards. Somehow, he'll find a way to put up a solid point total, and you can't afford to miss out if he really goes off. Because of his price and "IR" listing, he might even see slightly lower ownership than usual, but it doesn't look like he's in any danger of missing this game after sitting out Week 17 due to a positive COVID test. RB Nick Chubb, Browns @ Steelers ($7,700). We're hoping others are scared away by the tough matchup. Chubb has been sort of a "Derrick Henry lite" this year, putting up numbers against virtually everyone. He rumbled for over 100 yards and a score last week against a depleted Pittsburgh defense, and for the year, he's either scored or had 100 yards in all but two games. He'll be leaned on early, and we're betting he'll produce more than many expect. WR Marquise Brown, Ravens @ Titans ($6,300). Brown has scored in five of his past six games while averaging 56.3 yards per contest in that stretch. Tennessee allows the second-most FanDuel points per game to WRs, so Hollywood is almost a must-play regardless of your quarterback, but he has to be in your lineup if you're using Jackson at QB. WR Chase Claypool, Steelers vs. Browns ($6,100). Claypool finally topped 100 yards and scored again last week against Cleveland, and while that doesn't necessarily mean he's "back," it does give us hope heading into this game. It's also noteworthy that he performed well in both games against the Browns this year (at least 74 receiving yards, two TDs), and he remains Pittsburgh's top deep threat. For $6,100, we'll gamble on Claypool pulling off one or two big plays in this favorable matchup. WR Anthony Miller, Bears @ Saints ($4,700). Miller ended the season with four straight games in which he posted fewer than 17 yards -- not exactly an encouraging sign. But you have to take some chances on a three-game slate, and since we paid up for our QB and RBs, we're hoping to strike it big with a random WR. Miller is still playing about half of Chicago's snaps, and with Darnell Mooney (ankle) "questionable" after missing practice all week, there's a chance Miller sees a major uptick in targets. If Mooney is out, Miller might actually become a chalky pick, but either way, we like his chances to make a big play or two in a game where Chicago figures to be trailing in the second half. TE Jared Cook, Saints vs. Bears ($5,900). Over his final five games, Cook averaged three receptions and 43.8 yards while scoring three times. Those numbers won't blow you away, especially when you factor in Michael Thomas's absence for the past three games, but Cook is clearly a big part of New Orleans' red-zone offense. There are plenty of decent TE choices on this slate (see below), so taking a risk with Cook might be unnecessary, but we're hoping for some differentiation with our two-TE strategy. FLEX Mark Andrews, Ravens @ Titans ($7,000). Over his final six games, Andrews averaged 5.3 catches (7.3 targets) and 67.3 yards -- all solid for a TE. He was especially good against Tennessee earlier this year, posting 96 yards and a score on five catches. Since we're playing Jackson, it makes sense to pair him with his most reliable red-zone target, and Andrews has proven he can make plays all over the field. D/ST Cleveland Browns @ Steelers ($4,000). 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